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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Charles R who wrote (21637)12/6/2000 9:11:47 AM
From: Dan3Read Replies (2) of 275872
 
Re: After Q2, with P4 ramping hard, AMD will be hard pressed to play this kind of game

When do you really think Intel will have the output from a significant number of .13 wafers available for sale?

With the earliest possible production wafer starts in late H1, I don't see market moving output available for sale until early 2002. Until then, Intel has a P4 with a manufacturing cost that is triple that of Athlon/Palamino. So AMD can make a 50% margin selling CPUs at Intel's raw manufacturing cost.

Meanwhile, the contest with significance (e.g. volume) is between P3 and Athlon, and Athlon substantially outclasses P3 in performance with a small manufacturing cost penalty. Intel knows this, and this is why Intel's roadmaps all show the first use of .13 FAB space allocated to P3, not P4.

With AMD and Intel moving to .13 in roughly the same time frame, and AMD gaining the benefit of low K SOI as well, things still look just fine for AMD. The are also some indications that the lack of low K SOI may doom Intel's first iteration of .13 to irrelevance.

We'll wait and see how that turns out. Meanwhile, both companies have many chances to miss deadlines - execution is the key. The last year and a half has been the story of AMD executing a little better than Intel. Will that continue?

Regards,

Dan
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