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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 37.28-0.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: Hawk who wrote (120872)12/6/2000 12:11:11 PM
From: Hightechhooper  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
dbf & hawk,

I really don't think Q4 matters. INTC has said they will hit the estimates and have implied they will be at the low end. It is Q1 that is the cause for concern because now both GTW and AAPL have talked about the tremedous amount of inventory in the channel for ALL COMPANIES, not just their own. Given the delay between INTC recognizing revenue for these systems (before they are build by OEMS) and when the machines actually move (i.e. end sale to consumers) it looks like OEM's will not have to order much in Q1 until their channel inventories are cleared.

It all comes down to how INTC's other market segments are performing (notebooks, servers, communication products, flash). If those segments can hang on in Q1 then we will all be OK. If not, INTC stock will take another big hit when they lower guidance for Q1 during the January conference call.

Just a few days ago I wasn't worried about any of this because I really thought seasonal demand would eventually pick up with a big surge late in the quarter. I am amazed that this hasn't happened but I guess the wealth effect of the stock market crash has really impacted discretionary spending. If businesses slow down their IT spending at the same time we could really see a hard landing for INTC.

To be honest I am scared $hitle$$ right now and will remain that way until the January call. I do think Q1 will be the bottom given Greenspan's comments yesterday but I just don't know how deep the hole will be.
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