No, I didn't know, actually, that securitytrader.com publishes both weekly and daily versions of its INDU chart. If, as you say, it's still working the Dow Diamond on the weekly but offering a bullish interpretation on the daily, then I guess that would come out short-term bullish, long-term bearish.
As you may know, I've never believed that the supposed and widely remarked Diamond qualified as valid by strict Edwards&Magee or Bulkowski standards, not least due to the lack of meaningful volume characteristics. Securitytrader.com's supposed H&S on the NDX (also not unique to the site) seems even less likely to be valid, given its placement within a downtrend rather than at a top.
In short, I think it's quite possible that both indices are in consolidation patterns rather than at top reversals (esp. in the case of the NDX), and, as I'm sure you're aware, even valid Diamonds and H&S's are subject to failure. On the other hand, as I'm sure you're also aware, but as I among others have nonetheless frequently had to emphasize, the fact that a formation may not be strictly valid doesn't mean that subsequent developments may not fulfill its seeming implications. Nor does the questionability of a certain pattern imply the opposite of the putative implications. My main purpose is simply to warn against 1) excessive bearishness based upon what appear to me to be dubious readings, and 2) excessive skepticism of well-founded technical analysis in the event that securitytrader's and other analysts' implicit predictions do not come true. |
