Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: jim_p who wrote (80887)	12/6/2000 6:22:06 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

Wacky Market out there... Here's all I am trying to do here: I doubled my Oils here - up to a "whopping" 30% portfolio holding (VBG); because it seemed like the Street was buying into the "Greenspan Put" rescuing the market once again... and I thought that it was a good chance/opportunity to "catch" a broad market bounce move with the wind behind our backs. Positive risk vs reward re-entry's are far & few behind in this market. I viewed this as a chance for a quick little in & out 20-25% upside bounce rally; with the risk of perhaps a 10%ish downside move to OSX 90-94 and upside potential of OSX 120-125; for potentially a 20-25% upside versus 10% downside; or a 2 - 2.5:1 reward vs risk ratio. When I bought; I set stops down about 10%ish lower than my buy in prices (stops @ $18 MRL, $8.5 GLBL) and planned to raise tight trailing stops right up behind any penetration rally thru OSX 120 if seen. I only bought 5,6 Oilpatch stocks; mostly MRL one of my fav's that I believe I've got a realy good feel of the tape for & hoped to catch the wind behind my back for a little 3-10 day rally / MRL move from $20 to $25 and then getting out before that last 10 days of December; where we can see that last bit of tax loss selling pressure if the rally hits resistance, or exhaustion. Sentiment-wise; we just might need Crude to hit $26-28ish & then get strong buying support & bouce back to $28-$30. Thinking that with the Oilpatch earnings still so visible here; that we just might get some sector rotation based on earnings, earnings, earnings - as that is the one thing that is missing from this market - earnings momenteum ! Intel with negative guidance; Apple implodes, HP didn't bite the bullet & lower guidance and the talk is all over the Street than now; HP is set up to miss big... so; perhaps this market will come back to earnings momenteum - especially; if Crude finds $28ish support & with Nat Gas just ramping here. Even thought we've disconnected here from commodity prices & our strong underlying fundamentals - we nearly due from "default" to get some inflows just from those who have to put some money to work & want earnings... Since the Tech rally did not "stick" - hasn't yet anyway; maybe some of this money that we saw come out of the woodwork will follow the earnings leadership that the Patch has near exclusivity on ? I honestly think I've finally internalized my "lessons learned" from 97-98; as I honestly feel "over-exposed" re-entering here to just a 30% Oilpatch position in this broad market weakness & our dislocation from both commodity prices & the underlying fundamentals and earnings. Sticking with my Golds here... US Dollar is, must and will be "walked" down by Greenspan. Weakening US Corportate earnings mandate that it must be; the stress fractures in other currencies & economies mandate that it must be and if the Fed eases; a weaker dollar is a natural by-product of any easing... AND ---> Gold trades inversely to the US Dollar. I think we see XAU 60 (roughly 30%upside) regardless of any significant flight to safety rotation, or without any negative market events - just in merely returning to the bottom of the trading band on a pure fundamental valuation basis. Tech ? - good luck anyone... I'm a believer that if you do trade Tech; that the QQQ's are a gift from the Risk-Gods; as individual Company blow-ups are still epidemic... You can't own anything and sleep well. A sector peer warns any any company can get killed by association !?!? I've still got my QQQ's - small 4-5%ish position I bought as I closed out my shorts (too soon?) as a hedge... I'll use stops there as well. My "gut feel" tells me we just might put together a short little against the grain Oilpatch Rally here; as there has to be a pool of money searching for earnings momenteum out there; but I'm looking to sell starting at OSX 120ish...and I want out before the last 10 days of Dec - but; I do like buying that last 2-3 days on weakness; as we had some serious "tape painting" in the Oilpatch last year. Anyone remember RRC & a few others big end of the month/year run ups ? - a few fundies will pull thier numbers up a bit. Earnings are still going to continue to come down in the Broad Market; especially Tech and Valuations are going to get compressed dramatically as growth rates slow. Still think Dow 8750 & NAZ 2000 are very "fairly valued"... I think it's better than 50:50 we see both within 6 mos... Not sure the OSX can go to new highs - against the broad market grain; unless we get to those market lows here before March; then if so; we really may truly be at a market bottom & the OSX can be perfectly positioned for that March to May rally to new highs. If we hold OSX 95-115 into a correcting/bottoming NAZ 2000 & DOW 8750; then the OSX can run thru 150-165 next spring. ... amazing; I feel "over-exposed" in this Wacky Market at 30% Oil's & 5% in QQQ's; even with 35% Gold and 30% Cash. I'd love to catch a OSX move to 125, a 20% pop on those "QQQ's and get out under the wire before year end. I think Q4 reporting from tech will lead to more blood in the streets... if the NAZ doesn't rally thru 3100-3200 on Greenspan's "green light" - we're going down thru 2000 - bank on it... Cash, Cash, Cash; tight stops for downside protection & don't be a Hog if we get an OSX rally here... and Gold is a man's best friend. ... enough rambling; it is now rather obvious that the "Big & Easy" Money Train has come & gone... no wonder Cramer & Vinik decided to hang up their hats here - this market is W-A-C-K-Y ~ Next 48 hours going to be real intersting; we'll see if this "Greenspan Put" rally sticks here.

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