Portfolio down 3.29%%, Dow down 2.15%, Nasdaq down 3.23%, S&P500 down 1.82%, Gilder down 1.3%, Meisler down 1.1%, J-Blimps down 2.0%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy up 3.9%
NYSE Volume: 1.36 bln...Adv: 1219...Dec: 1670
Up Volume 447.29 Down Volume 837.50
Nasdaq Volume: 2.3 bln...Adv: 1544...Dec: 2390
Up Volume 709.50 Down Volume 1539.64 2/1 decline for day 1
Put/Call ratio 0.37 (Range 0.37 to 0.56) People bought cheap calls on the gap down.
Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
Gold ($XAU) 50.48 +2.51 +5.23% Love this oscillation.
Collapse of the day
Hardware ($HWI) 225.02 -25.17 -10.06% one bad apple spoiled the whole bunch sir.
One stock
AAPL down 15.81% Not so bad. Apple (AAPL) after hours yesterday said that its first-quarter revenue will be "substantially" below expectations and it expects to report its first quarterly loss in three years. The computer company expects to report a loss, excluding nonoperating gains, of between $225 million to $250 million. Company is sitting on 11 weeks of inventory.
Note: took other PC stocks and got IBM on the run after Gateway, Dell had warned also.
Portfolio Watch
FDRY down 12.31%
JNPR down 10.06%
A down 5.56%
MTSN up 6.59%
WFII down 8.13%
INKT up 10.34% A short’s worse nightmare, up 60% in two days. Good deal wioth hughes to become a satellite caching leader.
NETE down 7.57%
Shopping List
AMAT (This is the premier semi-equipment company. Re-entry $36, nov 15th earnings)
At $40. 50/26 pos, 13% of total. Day 2 pos. Chart: Indicator set for a strong move in a few days.
KOPN (Cyberdisplay leader, re-entry around $10)
11/2 pos, day 2 pos, 13% volume. At $13. Chart: straddle in the middle
BRCD (leader in fiber channel, 357% growth. PE of 652 at $260, Nov 29th earnings)
At $191. 95/82 pos 20% vol. Day 1 pos. Chart: rise is on weak volume, no good
BreezeCOM (BRZE) (162% growth rate, Present PE 80 or so) Reports Q3 earnings of $0.11 a share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.09; revenues rose 162.1% to $29.01 mln from a year-ago of $11.07 mln;
Note: At $15, 4/5 blocks pos for day 1. Volume 50% Chart: second highest volume in three months
YHOO ( PE of 146, growth of 90%,)
At 37, 212/156 neg, 20% of total, day 2 neg, Chart: on the 10 day ema
CAMP (Fixed wireless leader, yahoo got PE wrong, need to see buying)
At $17. 5/3 pos, day 1 pos, 26% volume Chart: bounce
SFA (cable box leader, re-entry near lows with buying trend up)
At $51, 8/8 even, 21% volume, Chart: bounce up
SEBL ( leading CRM company coming down now)
At $90 60/46 pos, day 1 pos, 12% vol. Chart: broke above 200 day EMA
EMKR (technology leader in each of its markets. Records in revenues and backlog.)
At $38. 11/2 neg, day 2 neg, 28% vol. Chart: support at $30
OLN ( Profitable chemical company coming back, PE 10, growth 32% projected)
At $18, 1/0 pos, 40%, day 1 pos. Chart triple top going break
DD (Dow stock with some bad years but good balance sheet, Present PE 16.8 and 11% growth but thinking this is down too much.)
At $44, 13/8, 33% volume. Chart: Drop since really doesn’t fit model
Watch List things to watch but not trade
QQQ at $68, 478/418 pos day 3 pos. Volume is 75%. Chart: Held the 10 day ema.
Note: Very bullish to hold this level with block trades positive
This Celestica deal with MOT to sell MOT units makes me wonder how healthy MOT is. They are losing to NOK in Europe, warned twice and raising cash.
In a further move to shore up its operating units, CMGI’s [CMGI: Nasdaq] AltaVista web portal has decided to terminate its free Internet access service. CMGI recently shuttered a couple of subsidiaries due to the slowdown of advertising revenues within the dot.com universe. Both units, which required significant funding, were nowhere near achieving desired growth rates and thus would be unable to achieve profitability anytime in the near future. The move follows recent staff reductions at AltaVista. The company trimmed its work force by 25%, or 225 people, in September to streamline its costs. AltaVista plans to further lower expenses, consolidating operations into its Palo Alto location.
Free Internet service, once thought to overtake pay services, has proved impossible due to the decline in the advertising revenue-based model. The fact that smaller online companies have closed their doors, leading to a decline in advertising dollars, has caused those companies that rely mainly on advertising dollars to suffer tremendous losses. Across the board, free Internet service providers have had to shutter operations. ideaadvisor.com
Note: I don’t see this working out. I rarely use this search engine so I see it and CMGI fading out. I use google/yahoo the most, probably askjeeves second and excite third. What this means is yahoo is clearly going to win in the free advertising space. INKT may be a collateral loser as dotcoms fade or simply just don’t get off the ground floor.
Dow Jones & Co. warned that fourth-quarter profit will miss expectations as advertising drops at The Wall Street Journal. Late Wednesday, Tribune Co. issued a fourth-quarter earnings forecast that would be lower than analysts were expecting.
Note: print media not doing any better either.
Bank of America (BAC) warned Wednesday that it would miss fourth-quarter earnings estimates because it's writing off around $1.1 billion in bad loans.
Note: The bank without problems will be the winner, but not my forte in picking these. Easing rates will help the sector. Maybe I should be watching Citibank again.
Natural gas surged to an all-time high Wednesday as cold weather permeated the West and California energy officials warned that insufficient supplies could lead to power outages. Crude-oil prices also settled higher as the pricing dispute between Iraq and the United Nations dragged through another day.
At the New York Mercantile Exchange, January natural gas soared $1.101, or 15%, to settle at $8.485 per million British thermal units, after peaking at $8.80, well above the previous all-time high of $7.95 set Monday. The February through May contracts also posted contract highs.
Note: PTEN is cheap play now and EPG has been moving sideways. I might dip into this since I am hearing Peoplegas in IL get constant flack on the recent rate hike. Might be a good alternative play to a tech.
Indian Steelmakers Sail, Essar May Cut Output to Avoid Glut, Lift Prices
Steel Authority of India Ltd., the country's No.1 steelmaker, and other local steel companies plan to cut production as the industry faces a supply glut and falling prices.
Note: Steel is being dumped onto the US market as well as many basic materials such as plastics. Not a sector that will do well.
Scient plans layoffs and restructuring due to Net business slowdown.
Note: Internet consulting is tough now. Watching ACOM casually as the better one in the sector.
LVLT, KLIC, RFMD, ADI, PMCS, BVSN, C, COVD, ISLD, KEM, MOT, QCOM, JDSU, TXN, TSCM, GX are ones worth watching
Summary
I have to expect profitaking on many of the double digit gainers as block trades were not the cause of the rise but retail investors pushing it up.
Yep. Profitaking. I am seeing the QQQ being accumulated and the call buyers buying on the dips. The market sentiment has shifted to the upside in the next three weeks. Might not be a bad time to start putting that cash to work. PC sector is the one to watch.
CIEN Thursday morning will be key. I think it will sell off on the news as I didn’t like the vendor financing issues last quarter.
I got to feel minus 10 below wind chill watching a fiber optic cable duct being laid across a local farmers field. Apparently the utility has the right of way and can choose the shortest route to their destination. I would think they wouldn’t put it across a cornfield though. What I learned what that fiber optics cables is not one long continuous length of uninterrupted cable. It is a series of patchwork splices though most locations. Just laying the duct one mile is several days with slow downs due to crossing buried utilities and field draintiles that has to be replaced. For most people access to fiber for internet connection will not be seen for a few years if this is a typical pace. The fiber optic equipment suppliers still haven’t sold products for this particular run so 50% annual growth is realistic as I watch I88 is getting its fiber west of me. I think optical testing companies will do well later as these splices will require extensive testing before carrying data.
The cold weather made me realize that Carhartt is the preferred work garment of the other workers. Too bad it is private company since I haven’t seen this loyalty to a brand since Harley Davidson.
Jack |
