Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 160.52

-4.9%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (9095)	12/6/2000 10:55:03 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 10921

GTW, what are those forecasters smoking? I'd like to have some. I think that the industry will be lucky to ship $45 B next year (less by a little than this year. Not only does "Mr. Market" says that, but the macro-economic indicators point to a slow down in new fabs and push outs. In the "strongest market, Taiwan, we already know of one "push out" of 12" fabs. In Korea, it will take some time before HEI can raise ($1.5 B) to build a 12" fab. More importantly, I still have not heard from the wafer makers on their installation of capacity for the 10 or so 12" wafer fabs coming on line in the next 18 months. I think that shortage of wafers will cause delay in the deployment of new fabs. When you match this to slowing demand from both the PC sector and the wireless telephony sector, you get a slow down due to peak rate of increase in capacity recently (last quarter was 7% or so, mostly by improvement in processes.) The next BTB figures will be interesting to look at. Zeev

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