Mike,
Re: Nokia - King or Prince (handsets)
<< If you're referring to the handset market, that's a royalty game in which Nokia doesn't have twice the market of its next largest competitor. That makes Nokia a prince >>
Nokia's market share in handsets is close enough to being twice that of their nearest competitor, that "arguably" they could be called king.
Through 1999 end their market share was 26.2% compared to #2 Motorola's 15.0 %.
Their market share is increasing and they could well be very close to twice Motorola by year end.
I just looked at numbers through end Q2, but don't have numbers handy.
Remember, Moore states that a king "properly" has two-times lead or better, and adds "the market will allow a little leeway here but if the lead shrinks too far, the king becomes a prince" (pg. 63 RFM).
In this case Nokia's lead is not shrinking, it is widening.
Moreover, Nokia's core business is handsets, so although not a pure handset play they are very good one.
We invited Tero over here to expand on this in GG terms, but he declined. One of these days I'll drag him back here to make his case.
In the interim, "properly" you are correct. Nokia is a Prince, but it is close.
Either way, they are in an intensely competitive business, and will be seriously challenged by the Asians, and some other Europeans.
Hold Nokia VERY lightly at all costs.
Where's Mr. Fun?
- Eric - |
