Bob,
Don't you think this Si28 speculation is way overblown?
My initial impression of it was that it would take some time before it is perfected and costs come down. My time frame was 2-3 years (if ever) when I first bought ISON - some time after we exchanged some PMs. At that time, ISON was in $4 to $5 range. I added more later on, at 1 1/4.
As far as AMD using it in 2001, that would be a pleasant surprise. So far, all I see is a lot of smoke. The source of the info is an anonymous email to The Register. That's as much of a long shot as it gets.
I think it is, because such wafers would be available to anyone who wants them. Same thing with SOI, if the performance/cost factor is right, Intel can do it also. It might be more important to just focus on new designs and the basic process technology, because the substrate technologies are available to both MPU manufacturers.
Excellent point. Any gains AMD derives from the technology will be short lived. Intel will derive the same gains once (if) they start to use Si28 wafers as well.
But the short term gains may be exactly what the doctor ordered for AMD. the product offerings may become somewhat week in Q4 2001, when Intel has Piii on .13u and P4 substantially ramped. If AMD leads Intel about 1 year in adopting the Si28, this technology may bail out AMD, during this period.
After that (Q4 and forward), with Hammer family, .13u, SOI all arriving from late Q4 2001 through Q2 2002, AMD may re-gain the lead in processor microprocessor design. So if Intel catches up with Si28, SOI, the companies may be again at near parity process technology-wise, but AMD may have better strategic position with the microprocessor designs.
Joe |
