Introduction:
I talked to Alan Engbring of Investor Relations at Vical (619) 453-9900 on Friday, May 23, 1997. Each time I talk to Vical or receive printed information from them, I learn more about their business and prospects. I would suggest that anyone interested in Vical to contact Investor Relations and get the first hand information themselves. It would be quite a shaky investment platform if one's sole reliance for information was these message boards.
This time as in the past, they were friendly and informative in relating what has happened, what is currently happening and would not create unrealistic expectations by speculating on what may happen. Points covered included the following.
Allovectin:
The overall safety of Allovectin has been good. The efficacy in its use for Melanoma Phase I and Phase II has been promising. The efficacy in its use for Head & Neck cancer has been promising. The efficacy in its use for other conditions has been poor (This is a rehash of facts that are in one of the recent press releases or the annual report).
Trials regarding Melanoma treatment and Head & Neck cancer treatment are continuing. The Melanoma results validated Vicals move to focus on its treatment in October/1996. They are currently in a strategy formulating stage regarding Allovectin (This is a rehash of facts that are in one of the recent press releases or the annual report).
At least, two more Allovectin trials are necessary before any possible product registration. Maybe someone out there with a crystal ball can determine a date associated with that!!!
Vical is determined to continue their good relationship with the FDA. They must continue to show data that indicates safety & that shows efficacy in a reasonable percentage of cases when there is no other or very limited current treatments.
Leuvectin:
The Phase I/II will go at least to the end of 1997.
Vaxid:
We did not discuss this.
Vaccines:
Merck has been in a Phase I trial since April/1996 and is very secretive as to the progress. In addition, a malaria vaccine may go into Phase I sometime during 1997.
Delivery:
The naked DNA `patented' proprietary technology is used for the vaccine delivery but Vical's proprietary lipid formulations (cytofectins) are used for the cancer treatment delivery (This is not news, it is just that I did not understand it before --- don't know if I do now).
Conclusions (Mine):
1. Vical continues to make progress.
2. It's difficult to determine whether they will be successful enough to attain any FDA approvals. I am going to determine what I think Vical is worth based on how well their progress compares to what the FDA requires. In other words, progress is necessary for success but not sufficient, if it doesn't meet the FDA requirements of ... safety and efficacy in treating an otherwise untreated or poorly treated condition.
3. It will take patience and grit to wait around (years, decades, etc...). Maybe my heirs will someday say, "... what a forward looking chap old Bill was...".
4. I am long Vical with around 10% of my Ira in the Company. I would like success but understand that the risk associated with that reward is a loss of the 10% .
5. Continued progress toward FDA approvals should see continued slow increases in the Company market cap. Failures would have the opposite effect on the Company market cap.
That was about it.
Bill |
