Haven't reviewed the NYSE again yet, but for the S&P I'm going with a slight variation of your read. I think you've got the ED thing nailed, but I'm afraid it's already nearly 9 months in the rearview. This is a count we covered a while back, but I see nothing that rivals it, especially now that the channel lines are screwed on the alternative ED count.
So the read i feel best meets every single criteria we've spoken often about has (off the 10/98 lows) 1 ending on 7/20/99, 2 on 10/18/99, 3 on 1/3/00, 4 on 2/28, and 5 on 3/24. The read is absolutely unblemished, with nicely converging diagonal 1-3/2-4 lines, 5 smaller than 3, 3 smaller than 1, historically VIOLENT moves each way during the formation, 4 to 1 overlap, and the CLASSIC SPIKE 5.... and to top it off...BEAUTIFUL 1-3 trendline 5th wave throwover!!! And then just after its completion, what did we get? CRASH... And a record breaking crash it was into the 4/14 interim low.
And for pattern seekers, the beautiful 7 month diamond was formed, a once in a lifetime sighting probably as rare as spotting a Bigfoot with projectile diahrreah. Not to mentioned followed by Blue Chip stocks like LU losing 80% of their value in 9 short months. Dude, this is ALREADY WORSE than '29 in terms of size of decline versus duration, especially if you survey the damage in stocks where the "action" was. Heck, it took until '32 for many stocks to lose 80%+ value, and we've seen it happen in less than 9 months.
See "The day the Bubble Burst" for dozens of parallels between then and now concerning signs of mania. IMO we outstripped every one of their irrationalities by a substantial multiple, or metric, if you prefer. <g>
Was that somethun serious that just completed in the Dow?? Please Tell me your "approaching the end of the 5th" read on that one wasn't looking for an ABC off the 10/18 low that may have completed at today's highs? |
