Slider,
I couldn't agree more. The trend is not your friend. I began to liquidate everything except SMOP yesterday morning when the OSX rallied briefly.
"I honestly think I've finally internalized my "lessons learned" from 97-98; as I honestly feel "over-exposed" re-entering here to just a 30% Oilpatch position in this broad market weakness & our dislocation from both commodity prices & the underlying fundamentals and earnings"
Until we see a reversal in the following trends, I'm 100% cash.
1. We continue to see lower lows and lower highs in virtually all OS stocks.
2.Market leaders like RIG collapse after 5 upgrades in one day.
3. Still have some year end tax selling.
4. Many OS stocks continue to hit new 52 week lows, most of the market leaders are off more than 40% in the last six weeks. (Stocks off more than 40% from 52 week high: PKD, GLBL, HAL, WFT, UTI, VRC, FLC, RIG, GGY, ATW, NE, GRP, MDR, ESV, RDC, FGH, PGO, WG, MVK, NSS, UFAB and many others)
5. Oil no longer in a bull market
6. Oil will probably be below $25.00 before you realize it. Oil prices are determined more by the speculative hedge funds than market fundamentals, and it is hard to predict where they will end up once the oil bull market has broken down)
7. NG prices are speculative
8. Investors are selling on the news (they always do).
9. OSX sells off on the NAZ rally and sells off on the NAZ sell off.
I hope to buy back after the later of, oil prices have a clear bottom or February/March 2001.
Jim |
