Computer sales worldwide still healthy, IDC asserts
By: Joe Wilcox, CNET News.com
12/7/00 4:00:00 AM
Source: News.com
Although consumer PC sales are free-falling in the United States, shipments of computers worldwide
will still grow nearly 20 percent this quarter compared with the same period last year, according to a
new study.
This seemingly contradictory state of affairs comes as a result of the widely diverging fates of certain
sectors of the market, according to data released Thursday from market researcher IDC.
With U.S. consumer PC sales down as much as 30 percent this
holiday season and with earnings warnings from Apple Computer and
Gateway, some prognosticators have been singing a dirge for the PC.
But solid worldwide demand for portables will help counterbalance the
sluggish U.S. consumer PC market, IDC says. According to the
research group, worldwide portable shipments were up 33 percent in
the third quarter compared with the same period last year and will be
up 32 percent in the fourth quarter.
IDC also expects outstanding growth in the Asia-Pacific region.
Excluding Japan, shipments in the region are expected to be up 33.4
percent in the fourth quarter. In Japan they'll be up 29.4 percent.
In its report, IDC revised its worldwide projections for consumer PCs
only slightly. Its original estimates were for 20.3 percent unit growth in
the fourth quarter from last year. IDC now predicts a 19.6 percent gain
year over year.
Projections cut
As for worldwide PC unit shipments for both consumers and
businesses, IDC is expecting 19.8 percent growth in the fourth quarter
vs. last year and 19.6 percent growth from the third quarter to the
fourth quarter.
In the United States, the market researcher predicts 15.8 percent fourth-quarter growth in overall PC
shipments compared with a year earlier but a paltry 11 percent gain from the third quarter.
IDC analyst Roger Kay said a warming in the U.S. corporate PC sector "weighed against the obvious
decline we've seen in consumer desktops in the fourth quarter."
Still, U.S. consumer PC sales in the fourth quarter are expected to be "disastrous," Kay said. IDC
cut its original fourth-quarter projections about 10 points, from 21.2 percent year-over-year growth to
10.2 percent.
"That works out to about 500,000 units less than original projections," Kay said.
While the fate of the U.S. consumer PC market looks shaky--with some analysts saying seasonal
sales peaks are dead--the corporate market still looks bright. IDC predicts that upgrades of systems
bought in 1997 and 1998 and a big increase in Windows 2000 sales will lift the business market next
year.
Other analysts concurred.
"I don't think the PC is dead," said Robertson Stephens analyst Eric Rothdeutsch. "Strong sales of
Windows 2000 should buoy PC sales during the second half" of next year.
Some ugly news
Continued sluggishness in Europe, in part because of the dollar's performance against the euro,
compelled IDC to cut its fourth-quarter projections there to 15.1 percent year over year, down from its
previous estimate of 19 percent.
While projections are by no means as bad as they could have been, IDC still delivered some ugly
news. The market researcher cut its worldwide 2001 PC estimates to 16.6 percent growth over 2000,
down from its previous projection of 18.8 percent. But the United States could see some reinvigorated
demand in 2001.
"The long-term growth resumes in 2001 but at an ever-slowing pace, which reflects market
saturation," Kay said. "We will get into the single digits the next couple of years, and then it doesn't
rise again in our forecasts."
In fact, market researcher Gartner in February projected that between 15 percent and 20 percent of
Windows 95 and 98 systems would be upgraded to Windows 2000 this year. Gartner has since
revised expectations to less than 10 percent. Conversion next year is predicted to be 45 percent or
more.
IDC also released its final tally on third-quarter PC performance, placing Compaq Computer in the top
position worldwide and Dell Computer as No. 1 in the United States, as expected.
Worldwide, Compaq easily led Dell. Compaq had 14 percent market share, compared with Dell's 11.6
percent. Compaq also posted stronger unit growth, at 21 percent, compared with Dell's 19 percent.
But Hewlett-Packard outpaced the bunch with its unit shipments growing at 40.5 percent. HP also
moved up a notch from fourth place, displacing IBM. HP's market share came in at 7.8 percent,
compared with IBM's 7.3 percent. IBM's shipments grew 8 percent, while fifth-ranked Fujitsu-Siemens
dropped six-tenths of a point to 4.8 percent market share.
Dell led Compaq in the United States, with 19.7 percent share vs. 17.3 percent. But Compaq posted
stronger growth, 25.3 percent compared with Dell's 21.6 percent. HP again ranked third, with 11.1
percent share, and posted the strongest growth, coming in at nearly 47 percent.
Gateway fell to fourth place with 8.9 percent share, while IBM rounded out the top five with 5.7
percent market share. Gateway's unit shipments grew 7 percent, but IBM's plummeted nearly 20
percent. |
