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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: KymarFye who wrote (63850)	12/7/2000 10:28:40 AM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (2) of 99985

KymarFye ... follow-up from yesterday on the "commercial hedgers" ... I looked further into the situation, and discovered, as I thought, that the author of that article, on TheStreet.com (Aaron Task), does not have even a clue of which he speaks ... Long or short positions by "commercial hedgers" in the S&P 500 futures have absolutely no direct connection on the specific prices of any of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index ... It is the reverse, of course ... the S&P 500 Index causes the S&P 500 futures prices (along with other factors) to move ... this is not like somebody covering a short position in a stock (which I believe is what magnified the stock rally this past Tuesday). ... so do not look for any positive impact on stock prices if the "commercial hedgers" are wrong in being short S&P 500 futures ... the commercials will lose money to the individuals who sold them the contracts, but that will be it. ... not to mention that the commercials will not be wrong to begin with ... it is they who determine where the equity prices in the S&P 500 will move ... and in this case it will be down ... way down ... ... and that is how I am playing it with my March S&P 500 puts. Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions. Ken Wilson

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