Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: jim_p who wrote (80961)	12/7/2000 11:43:32 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

jim p - re: the trend within the trend... being your friend. I'm not criticizing anyone going 100% cash here & I took 3/4's of all my funds out of the market in August; so I hear you - unquestionably the "Big & Easy" money has allready been made here; the keyword being "easy" - as in a positive risk vs reward environment. I was only holding a 15% Oilpatch basis here; doubled it to 30% on Greenspans Greenlight. But; as allways - the fairly tight "stops" are in place. I think not only did Greenspan give the "green light" but he also reassured the market that the ESF & PPT remain on full "stabilization/intervention - read manipulation" alert... I closed my BTK put position and all other shorts out & went long just a fractional position in the QQQ's as well as going up to 30% in Oils here. I'm still holding - the QQQ's long; but I hold with stops at the prior NAZ low here. In the Oils; I'm going to see if we hold that OSX 94ish intra-day low the other day - that's a 5-6%ish downside stop. Motorola became yet another casualty today; but the market is handling it pretty good. I'm going to keep my Oils here as I think the money managers are going to "manufacture" an end of the year rally in which I think the Oils just might ride on their coat tails to a OSX 120-125ish bounce. I think we just may be working out the last bit of warning news and will still mount an end of year rally. But; I also don't think the NAZ has bottomed yet; as I believe more bad news is coming from Q4 reporting and it will be 2 more qtrs at least; before the bottom in earnings is in. It is very important here for this end of the year rally trade; that we've potentially got the election debacle coming to an end any day and that may really turn sentiment on a dime. We may have a nearterm positive as well, if Crude can test $25-27 and then settle in above $27/28ish. If it does; with Nat Gas just ramping - I think we can catch a little move - even though it very possibly is still within a broader downtrend - untill the Oil Majors see where the US Economy soft lands in mid 2001. We've still got the only "earnings" story in town...so maybe some sector rotation as well - within an Election/Greenspan Put Relief Rally ? I'm still in - hoping to catch a 20%ish bounce in the OSX, maybe a 20%ish move in my QQQ's and holding my Golds as what I firmly view here as both an offensive & defensive position. PS - re: JQP's waffling on "computers" being strong - to now; that he meant to say - "servers"... I ask; Server Strength ? - where ? Certainly not with SUNW - the server proxy ? 50 day comparison chart of SUNW to the Nasdq; its not showing any strength, or outperformance ability here ? SUNW actually underperformed the NAZ selloff during Nov ? siliconinvestor.com DROOY & PAAS up on good volume, small caps still backing & filling within the XAU. Come on Euro strength...

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