To All: FWIW, bigcharts.com does nice charts. An interesting one to look is AMAT with a "custom" time frame of 1994 to present, logarithmic scale, and large chart size. I get better printouts not using the "printer friendly" option. For the past downturn (Aug. 97 to Oct. 98) it took about 14.5 months from the peak for the stock to reach a new high. If that were to happen again that would mean we would triple our money from here by about the end of August, 2001. I don't expect that to happen, but could you imagine if it did? For the downturn before that it took about 21 months to recover the high, which would correspond to about Jan 2002.
Just for fun I went back on SI and read some of what people were saying back in late Sept./early Oct. of 98, which was right about at the bottom for the last downturn (and would correspond to about late May/early June of 2001 for us this time). Message number 24725 is from Paul V. who seemed to nail it right at the bottom. It takes courage to buy when everyone is so negative.
Message 5876304
"Big Bucks, Gottfried and John L. Just bought AMAT at $26 3/8 on margin. I was willing to take the downside risk against the upside potential with AMAT. If AMAT follows what it did in 1996 we should see it maybe pulling back to $23 (bull support line) and then moving up to $30 in October, $40 in November, $49 in Dec.and $54 the last part of January 1999. Then, in May 1999, if it follows 1996 should break the $54 range and continue moving on up. Naturally, these are approx. figures.
Just my $.02.
Paul V."
Good luck to everyone.
John |
