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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (121106)	12/7/2000 3:12:48 PM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (4) of 186894

<First of all, I doubt there was ever a 30-36 month replacement cycle. Where do you find this metric? Anecdotally, I would guess the replacement cycle is more like 60 months.< 60 months? Not even close. That would mean that on average the the standard PC of 1993(a 486DX @100 Mhz, with 200MB HHD and 16MB of RAM) wasn't replaced until 1998???? By 1998 you couldn't even give these machines away to schools or charities by 1998. The 36 month cycle is from a Gartner Fortune 500 survey of IT directors that was done in 1998. The estimate I used for current replacement cycles of 42-48 months is my own perception based upon working with a large number of different company's. < The vast majority of the replacements are those character based applications running on dumb terminals using mainframe computers running mostly cobol programs that are still in place because the graphically rich and database intensive replacement programs required processing capabilities that are still not cost effective enough to replace. < The only people in corporations that have been stuck with terminals are a limited number of clerical workers. EVERYBODY else has been using PC's for at least 4-5 years. If they worked with a mainframe app they used terminal emulation. But, in the past three or four years a huge number of mainframe apps have been replaced by C/S apps. Y2K paranoia accelerated this transition dramatically. <The overwhelming majority of Corporate purchases are for applications that have not yet been developed. Go to the vast majority of Corporate IT departments and you will find backlogs of 4 or 5 years worth of applications that still need to be developed. That is not to mention millions of man years backlog of improvements to existing applications.< I'm not sure what you are saying here at all. There is plenty of app development or improvement on the IT plate, for sure. But, new apps have not been the driving force behind desktop replacements, ever more bloated and complex desktop software has been. If you don't see that replacement cycles are lengthening I think you're not seeing the forest for the trees.

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