WTSherman,<<<The estimate I used for current replacement cycles of 42-48 months is my own perception based upon working with a large number of different company's.>>>
That is pretty close to my own observations of about 60 months. But, that is not the problem. Apple's short fall was not because people weren't replacing their Apples. They weren't buying Apples in the first place for any new applications.
<<<in the past three or four years a huge number of mainframe apps have been replaced by C/S apps. Y2K paranoia accelerated this transition dramatically.>>>
Much more effort was put into remediating existing programs, so that existing programs could continue to operate. These programs still have to be replaced.
<<<I'm not sure what you are saying here at all. There is plenty of app development or improvement on the IT plate, for sure. But, new apps have not been the driving force behind desktop replacements, ever more bloated and complex desktop software has been.>>>
The task to increase productivity has not scratched the surface. Look at health care. Look in the offices of your local doctor. Look at the hospitals. Look at the forms that you have to fill out over and over again for prescriptions, health insurance, hospital, and HMO interface.
Look at education. Do you really think that computer efficiency has hit the education establishment.
Look at your local and federal government. How much money do you think is still needed just to handle the paper work.
Look at voter registration and the voting process.
Do you know of any establishment where they are pleased and satisfied with the current level of automation.
You write as if everything has been automated and that we are just sitting around for them to replace existing applications with a slightly newer and more powerful computer change over.
Take another look around you. Yes, we may have hit a self induced recession, but that is only going to exacerebate pent up demand when recession worries abate. Okay, so it May take a year or 2.
Recessions come and go. That is economic reality. But, the automation process is in the very early stages of development.
Regards,
Mary |
