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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Road Walker who wrote (21912)12/7/2000 8:45:49 PM
From: Charles RRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
John,

<It's got nothing to do with product ramps. It has to do with demand.>

I think it has to do with both.

<Did AMD add enough flash capacity to make up for significant losses in microprocessor unit and dollar sales?>

What makes you think AMD will have significant losses in microprocessor unit and dollar sales? I expect AMD will have gains in units and dollar sales in microprocessors until Q2 2001. Q3 2001 is when I expect things to get tough for AMD.

<Intel wouldn't say it, but it sure sounds like unit microprocessor sales are going down.>

The odds are Intel's units are flat to down this quarter. And, if you believe the IDC's 40.5M number, the overall units should have gone up. I would be very surprised if AMD does not gain around 2 point in market share this quarter.

< I suppose you think that will only influence Intel, AMD will sell all they can build? >

I guess you don't read my posts. I have been saying for the last year that AMD has more capacity than it can sell. I have said a couple of times in the last few days it would be tough for AMD to make CPU unit guidance for the quarter.

<I've said before on this thread, competition between the two companies is a secondary issue. >

I disagree.

<Given a relatively competitive marketplace, DEMAND is the only thing that really matters. >

It is not a relatively competitive marketplace now. AMD has product advantage and that's why the market share has crept up to about 17.5% from a low of about 12% little over a year back. And, I predict the trend will not reverse until Q3 2001.

Chuck
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