Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 231.83

+1.7%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: Charles R who wrote (21913)	12/7/2000 9:21:14 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (2) of 275872

Charles, What makes you think AMD will have significant losses in microprocessor unit and dollar sales? I expect AMD will have gains in units and dollar sales in microprocessors until Q2 2001. Q3 2001 is when I expect things to get tough for AMD. That's because you believe the market is based on a some performance metric and that end users are aware. They are not aware. Any more than you are aware of the price performance difference of a Gillette or Schick (sp?) razor blade. You buy what you are comfortable with, primarily because of the marketing. The odds are Intel's units are flat to down this quarter. And, if you believe the IDC's 40.5M number, the overall units should have gone up. I would be very surprised if AMD does not gain around 2 point in market share this quarter. In the CC Intel was asked about the IDC numbers. Without criticizing IDC they said Intel's numbers were up to date to the day. The implication was that IDC was dealing in old info. They said the major change had happened in the last three weeks, no, I don't accept the IDC numbers. I guess you don't read my posts. I have been saying for the last year that AMD has more capacity than it can sell. No, I don't get over here to often so I don't read your posts. But I have been saying the same thing. It is not a relatively competitive marketplace now. AMD has product advantage and that's why the market share has crept up to about 17.5% from a low of about 12% little over a year back. And, I predict the trend will not reverse until Q3 2001. Has the market share increased in the last 60 days? But I'll be happy to concede that, because I don't care. IF this declining sales marketplace continues to gain momentum, the major competition will be who can cut costs faster, to maintain profits. Intel doesn't appear ready to do that, I wonder if AMD is. Think about a significant decline in unit sales across both companies, and what that does to you model. John

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