Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, December 7th:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 425.0 Million
SPX Short- URSA 281.2 Million
NDX Long - OTC 2,176 BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 107.1 Million
XAU Precious Metals 52.6 Million
Biotechnology 533 Million
Money Market 1.106 BILLION
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation)
SPX Long - TITAN 71.5 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 16.8 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 137.8 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 22.3 Million
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Overkill. There are so many daily warnings and negative pre-announcements and downward revisions ad nauseum that I can't keep up.
What I observed today was in spite of all this negativity going on, they couldn't take out supports. Simply put, selling has exhausted itself to the point that it dried up again this afternoon. And when it doesn't go down anymore - there is only one way to go nearterm and that is back up. Now I hear INTC has joined the party but futures are up.
Last night I went into dissertation and gave reasons to turn Bearish. First, I am always early in my assessment. I fully expect UTIL to mount an assault to 374 level. And I also believe BKX will find its way to 815 then 780 - as it always does.
But the bottom line for me is, I always work with technical analysis of the indices first (that is the thrust of the mita thread), and confirm and backtest it against sentiment figures via rydex and other gauges that I have mentioned in the past. And like Kasparov playing chess I try to factor in how the money will rotate long or short based off of strong gravitational market forces of fear and greed and how the money will move in response to this prior to the close.
What I saw today was BKX, UTIL and SPX held relatively well in a grind-down type of day. With the SPX I am sure we are near the 2/3 fibonacci pullback from the 50 point melt-up and I think we are now at the point to go back up and re-test that SPX 1,375 level. I also believe on the BKX we are going back to test BKX 860-870 level. It dropped like a stone too fast from this zone off of Bank of America problems the fire in the theatre sell first and figure it out later that is what happened. Now it will work its way back up and lets see if it holds and consolidates or turns back down again..
To add some spark to start the fireworks, tomorrow (today) we have the employment report coming out and the culmination of the FLA Supreme court ruling All of this taken together and I had come to the conclusin that LONG was the only play. We will soon find out.
As host of MITA thread, it is necessary for me to think clearly and be able to change my mind on a dime if the weight of the evidence dictates. Flexibility is key, to be able to switch and not feel compelled to defend Bear or Bull position beyond that point in time.
Now I have said i am looking for a 1-3 day counter-trend bounce. Why? Selling dried up today more than I could've expected the evening before and supports held for the most part across the board.
Now look what happens tonight after the bell that I could have never envisioned the night before. Money Market assets have dropped significantly to 1.1 Billion. Anything below 1 billion is Bearish and if we get a melt-up tomorrow I may lock in gains or move into XAU if that sucker would get back down below XAU 49. Or I may move back short if I see sloppy action. Also, an X factor is all these additions and subtractions of small cap stocks being replaced by large cap stocks in the S & P 500 after the close on Friday and Monday.. More confusion...
The bottom line: I am not and will not be married to anyone one position Bull or Bear, if events unseen the night before unfold and dictate a change needs to be made.
Long 100% SPX Long NOVA Fund
Best Regards, J.T. |
