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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank
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To: Dave Gore who wrote (118490)12/8/2000 10:27:36 AM
From: Lane Hall-Witt  Read Replies (1) of 120523
 
Dave: Well, I'd say a few too many of us had it all figured out!

I haven't thoroughly examined what INTC said yet, but what I heard sounded pretty bad. In particular, INTC said it is seeing slowdowns across all geographies, which definitely goes against the optimistic idea that the rest of the world will be prepared to step in and provide a cushion when the U.S. economy slows. MSFT, for one, has been optimistic on overseas growth to help compensate for the saturation of North American markets. The fact that INTC was able to expand its capex at the end of the year signals, to me, we're closer to oversupply wars than we've anticipated; dramatically reduced capex going forward will probably follow. (Remember the massive shortfall by KLIC: back-end equips are a leading indicator. Remember also that AMAT guided last quarter for flat revenues and EPS slightly lower than consensus: did that forecast account for the fact that INTC was taking early delivery on $500 million in equipment during the current quarter?)

The good news is that we're getting a pretty broad range of signs that sales of business PCs are strong. INTC said the Pentium 4 is moving well; in his note on MSFT yesterday, Rick Sherlund indicated that Win2000 is gaining traction; HWP forecast strong growth in its enterprise division; SUNW and EMC seem to be rocking.

Speaking of SUNW: why is it weak today? The only real news I see is the Cobalt deal--.
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