Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 304.84

-0.8%

Jan 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (40605)	12/8/2000 11:24:59 AM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I have found it easier to take advantage of the volatility by buying than by selling. I first started investing in AMAT in 1996 and was unsuccessful in trying to trade it. My investment horizon and fear of taxes also support a buy and hold strategy. Also, I would argue that buying just is easier with this sector. Buy after it falls 50% or more. Buy after the downgrades. Buy when reaching historically low P/E, P/S or P/B. I cannot figure out sell indicators however--perhaps sell when no one believes its cyclical anymore but that is pretty subjective. In 1998 I used the downturn to buy AMAT's competitors--e.g. NVLS, ASML, SFAM, KLIC, KLAC--but in 1999 I realized that AMAT was outperforming the sector and consolidated everything into AMAT. I have invested a little more in AMAT but once again I have felt compelled to diversify into other semiequips--BRKS and NVLS--which seem to offer better values. If I did not already have such a big investment in AMAT I would be buying it instead. I do feel that once again AMAT is poised to outperform going forward and that probably is why others seem like better values. I just do not like to have too much in one basket. My tendency is to get in too early and I realize that the worst is very likely not over (certainly business-wise, the stock price is more difficult to predict). I am prepared to buy more AMAT over the next few months. If I never get to make these purchases though, I can be happy with the investment that I already have.

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