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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (37736)	12/9/2000 6:06:20 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) of 42787

Haim; Taht was a thought provoking post ; for them who can still think, amid all the "wall street propaganda". The most honest Index we have is quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=5ym and you can see it's been in a stealth bear market since mid 1998. Most indexes are more enhanced than the value line, and they lead people to see the market going on up even after it has peaked as they keep taking out the dogs and putting in new runners so the "loses" get lost as to keeping a record on them. SO far this year a full 10% of the S&P has been re-jiggled! and if you could track that 10% which got tossed out and watched how much more they lost after the index funds sold them then subtract that from the S&P you would see that the bear market is a lot worse than the talking heads and wall street pundits want people to believe. ----------------------- The market was trying to base with the Value line at 400, and I saw that 400 as critical but now that it broke support I'm no longer trying to call a bottom and I'm playing very defensive with a fair amount of puts to balance out some of my longer bets. -------------- Most of the rallies since mid 98 have been "short covering rallies" while I've been of the notion we will have one more big run up before the big boys pull the plug it just may not happen. ---------------- Some of the rallies are tradable like if you see the Value line make 410-420 it would be best to take money off the table. quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=1ym or say the QQQ make 85 to 90. quote.yahoo.com The longer an index trades at a certain level : ( or stock ) then if it falls that makes that previous base level a very strong resistance as that's where the most change of owners happened over an extended time and they can relieve their pain when it gets there.. MSFT is a fine example of what I'm saying quote.yahoo.com As you can see the 70 line became her "new top" it will take a lot doing and money to get her above 70 any time soon and being she broke the 60 support the next strong support will be around 40, however she should bounce off the low 50s to 60s and may base there. Anything that GAPS UP ( without it being bought out ) will back fill the gap. Down Gaps may not get filled. I will not buy after any GAP UPs except to Day trade it. If it rallies good after a gap up unless there is a "buy out" on the table I will buy puts or short it. I'v been flipping QQQ & MSFT based on their gaps, I bought MSFT back after hrs Friday but stayed short the QQQ. My trading system don't let me trade 3 letter stocks after hours and if they don't fix that soon I will pack my bags as the QQQ is my favorite play. Jim Jim

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