Alex,
Re: "I'm not saying supplies are not low, because they are."
Alex, there you go again contradicting yourself. You really are
having a hard time arguing the AMD side of this, aren't you ??
Let me try to help you understand my statements by looking at
three different scenarios. My assumptions (and you can argue these
with me) are that roughly the AMD Austin Fab is capable of 20,000
wafers per month and let's also assume that half that wafer volume
is dedicated to K6 product (seems reasonable). Let's also assume that
you roughly can print 200 die per wafer (probably a low estimate).
I will list three scenarios and you pick the one that seems to match
your statements on "supplies being low", okay ??
Scenario 1: High Yield = 50% (Which would be good for a CPU in startup)
(10,000 wafers/mo of K6)*(200 die/wafer)*50% = 1,000,000 die/month
Scenario 2: Low Yield = 5% (Very Poor due to process margin problems)
(10,000 wafers/mo of K6)*(200 die/wafer)*5% = 100,000 die/month
Scenario 3: High Yield/Low Wafers Out (Stupid way to run the Fab)
(1,000 wafers/mo of K6)*(200 die/wafer)*50% = 100,000 die/month
Based on the fact that the K6 was announced 2 months ago and supplies
of 233Mhz parts (highest profit margin) are in short supply, which
one of these scenarios best fits ?? And if you say that it's
scenario 1 and PC vendors will be announcing many systems next week, I
don't think I can buy that one.
Make It So,
Yousef |
