DrakeMan, I think Monday Naz will open with repair of some afterhr damage
it will build slowly but steadily
some lunchtime coffee and pullback while digesting USSC arguments
since some uncertainty remains with the 5-4 weekend stay order,
I dont think Naz will cut loose and run hard
unlike Volt, I think deep but respectful division exists in USSupCt
I see a real big problem here
the justices from USSC want Florida to solve this internally
they offered a headslap to FLSC last time
there is NO EFFING WAY the USSC simply says:
"this is over, Sauls is upheld, Bush wins"
instead USSC will say something like:
"further clarification needed to justify further recounting as part of evidence discovery, and the FL Legislature holds responsibility to clarify standards for hand counting... with all respect to statutes, this race is simply too close NOT to review at least a sampling of the undervotes since the margin of victory is less than the recognized error rate of the vote counting machines"
Scalia says process is tainted IF recount continues
Stevens says presidency illegitimized UNLESS recount is clear
USSC showed their hand last time
they were divided, thus sent it back to FLorida
USSC this time is still divided
they will force the FLSC to do a better job
but with much stronger language, and more specific direction, with orders to deal with specific issues... like much more specific recount standards, and clear fair procedures for oversight, with directives on military absentees, and participation of every county
I also suspect the Dec12th deadline will be sacrificed for the greater good, and Elector College date might also be moved slightly... as Greggy says, these are not set in stone
amidst all this uncertainty, I think Naz opens down slightly from Friday's close... but nothing big & serious... and as the USSC oral arguments expose how important the undervoted ballots are in the eyes of USSC justices, the Naz sells in a steady slide toward close
how can one prove or refute "reasonable probability of different outcome" without a further look at undervotes???... the big detail missing in the media is that machine error is GREATER than margin of victory... the big risk in the entire equation is integrity of the ballots
compare 1-2% vote counting machine error
versus
0.01% margin of Bush certified victory
(we can live with big errors in WorldSeries baseball, but not here)
that is my best view blow by blow
damn, talking dirty again
let's hope nobody warns on Monday
/ Jim |
