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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (46219)	12/11/2000 4:07:02 PM
From: eddieww	Read Replies (1) of 436258

"...they haven't said that the usd must always appreciate against other currencies." Right, they've simply reiterated their strong dollar policy. If the dollar is devalued, our production overcapacity from all the capex of the past few years could be put to use for export along with our own demand. "...Fed easing isn't always a green light to equities. In more sober times it could be perceived as acknowledgement of a weak economy and a further reason to shift into bonds." Why would anyone profer credit or shift into fixed rate bonds at the start of an inflation cycle? "A negative savings rate and a struggling nasdung makes a quick response to easing less likely." If you wished for rapid inflation, quick easing is exactly what you'd do. If you believe, as I do, that equities are still grossly overvalued then you might have a problem finding a safe harbor, since a rally that doesn't exceed inflation produces a negative return. Obviously, there are many who don't agree that equities are overvalued, evidenced by the 400+ rally in compx, in the face of record earnings warnings, since Greenie even hinted at easing down the road. Fixed-rate instruments would seem out of the question - with every downtick in the value of the dollar and uptick in inflation you would lose more intrinsic value. The complicating factor in finding a safe harbor is that we are the 500lb gorilla and it is unclear that any other regional or national economy will be able to expand without even greater inflation of their own. In other words, it may be impossible to debase our currency vs others as long as they rely on us as a customer for their exports and we pay in dollars. But if we could debase it and pay off creditor nations with a devalued dollar that would be better than deflation and depression at home, wouldn't it?

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