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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 75.26

+1.2%

Jan 15 3:59 PM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (44380)	12/11/2000 5:41:45 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) of 77400

Phoenix, after further reflection I would like to point out a couple of more things. I have avoided posting to you for the last while because it seems we can't seem to discuss things with out you attacking me and getting all emotional. I've never seen anyone more disingenuous, inconsistent, and have more lack of conviction. Time to pay the piper? Seems to me that you and the other bears better hope Bush loses today. The purpose of these chat groups is supposed to be to discuss the trading fundamentals of stocks...both technical and financials. Why don't you try to stick to that...or do I have to pull up more of your "long term buy calls" and "little downside risk" calls on stocks like LU in the $50's. Sure this market can an is bouncing...nothing goes up or down in a straight line. As I pointed out 3000 (broken today) 3128 (50 dma) and 3480-3550 area (last major highs) are the key resistance areas for the coming weeks. I don't think that csco will blow past $60, INTC $40, MSFT $70 or IBM $100..etc. I think more warnings and slower actual earnings growth will be seen in the coming quarters. I think that "gains from investments" will not be so easy to get in the coming years. I think there will be a cash flow crunch as options trade under water and taxes need be paid. I think vendor financing will dig into earnings. I think cap ex spending will continue to slow. I think the bond market will prove to have great troubles. There are many things that I think will happen. MAKE NO MISTAKE! I DO NOT WISH FOR IT! I wish you and other bulls would stop trying to vilify me. Just cause I think something doesn't mean I hope for it. I bought a burglar alarm...does that mean I hope hope to be robbed? What about my fire insurance I bought? Does it mean that I hope my house will burn down. NO! I short cause I think stocks are going down. My job is to make money in this market. I will not buy stocks that are going down! I will not hold losing positions against me more then I planned going into a trade. I manage risk to reward. I almost never buy the bottom 1/8 of a move or sell the top 1/8. I am not perfect. I get stopped out on around 30% of my trades and lose money. But, when I take a loss it is small. I try to make realistic predictions of where a stock could move. If I think the stock can only go up 5 points and could go down 15 I short it went the market appears to weaken. If I think a stock could go up 15 and only down 5 I buy it when the market appears strong. That's it. Sure I hope to make money but I don't hope for recessions. I fear them. I hope the Greenspan lowers rates to 2.5% and we see another 5 years of boom on easy money. It will be great. I will load into some REITs and watch the real estate market rally. Then when the credit bubble peaks again I will short. The bottom line is that this economy is built on debt. I don't think that the end of this election drama or Greenspan slowly lowering rates means that tech will rally. I don't think that the liquidity will go to where it's needed. I think that it will end up in speculation in other areas...and inflation...and weaker dollar. I don't think people will line out to lead piles of money to the like's the WCII's and AMZN's of the world. Bambs

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