Ed,
>> What are some of your favorite energy stocks these days?<<
I have 100% of portfolio in O&Gs, mainly small cap Canadian exploration/productions cos.
Berkley is the largest holding and company, and I also have Hilton(CDNX) and Westminster in the ELH play.
I have Purcell, Vermillion and Velvet, all of which are either mainly or totally in natural gas.
I think the tide has just turned and next 2 months will see a significant sector rotation into energy stocks.
>> Simmons' frank discussion of his committee's previous erroneous assumptions is very interesting and helps put the
current situation in perspective.<<
Yes, it's not often that we get a high profile person coming out with such a devastating re-appraisal, of a report that is less than one year old. All credit to him for having the courage to do so but the questions have to be asked, "how on earth did they come up with some of these assumptions."??
One thing, among many, that caught my eye was that they went into the study with the aim in mind of setting up models that would maintain the price of NG at under $3. I believe they should have let the price float and re-evaluated the demand and supply data and let the revised pricing scenarios come from there.
The demand curve is where the real problem lies and getting realistic data on that, setting possible restrictions on demand and then searching for the true supply side would bring them closer to the rather ugly truth that we all face today.
>> As of last week's AGA numbers we would only have about 500 BCF of gas left after the winter if we have a similar draw this year than we had from the same date last year.<<
Scary scenario, if you ask me. There is little chance at all of another winter as mild as last year.
>> I believe this week's AGA number will put storage even further behind last year. Only thing that will save us from a true crisis is if the predictions of a warmer-than-normal January turn out to be right.<<
Good luck,!
'jaggs |
