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/ Market HeadsUp for 12/11/00
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Risk/Reward:
When small-capitalization stocks are in an uptrend:
Opportunity in the stock market is greatest.
Invest aggressively in high-tech issues.
When small-capitalization stocks are lagging:
Risk in the stock market becomes excessive for high-tech issues.
Consider health care, financial and utility funds.
Small-Cap Signal: (Sell, 09/26/00)
12/11/00 12/08/00 12/07/00 12/06/00 12/05/00
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Small-Cap/Stochastics -656.02 -824.76 -959.16 -993.43 -1043.88
Small-Cap/MACD 16.23 -15.41 -46.41 -50.80 -61.10
GOOD = > 0 and improving
Small-Cap/RSI 55.94 52.69 44.31 45.32 48.54
GOOD = > 60 and improving
Small-Cap/ % Drawdown 0.00 0.00 -2.28 -1.77 -0.15
> 5.50% = High-Tech Bailout
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Here's the broad market picture:
Rising trend is GOOD (whether positive or negative)
Falling trend is BAD (VERY bad if negative and continuing to fall)
12/11/00 12/08/00 12/07/00 12/06/00 12/05/00
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
OTC McClellan Summation Index -3644.46 -3781.78 -3877.23 -3862.45 -3863.98
OTC Price Oscillator: -163.15 -178.90 -190.57 -193.46 -198.28
55-day EMA, NS NH/NL: 24.61 23.95 23.50 23.92 23.87
30-15-15 MACD NS NH/NL: -219.89 -245.82 -262.79 -269.05 -272.33
NY McClellan Summation Index: 482.48 355.26 238.94 181.04 121.27
NY Price Oscillator: -1.77 -2.62 -3.46 -3.82 -4.27
55-day EMA, NY NH/NL: 52.24 51.13 50.01 49.74 49.19
30-15-15 MACD NY NH/NL: 57.24 36.61 21.19 13.89 6.73
30-Year Bond: 207.97 201.82 193.18 170.28 146.18
10-Year Bond: 346.05 330.71 310.32 274.77 234.98
Market Momentum & Strength:
RSI-14 of DFSCX 46.36 42.21 34.91 36.63 37.66
RSI-14 of Nasdaq 52.31 48.52 41.20 42.70 46.01
RSI-14 of Nasdaq 100 53.71 50.89 43.69 44.51 48.39
RSI-14 of PSE-X 55.69 53.00 45.42 47.56 50.19
RSI-14 of S&P 500 53.92 51.78 45.81 47.44 53.03
RSI-14 of NYSE 58.39 57.22 51.07 51.69 56.78
% DFSCX is above its 200 EMA -6.26 -7.51 -9.45 -8.79 -8.42
% RUT-I is above its 200 EMA -1.89 -3.55 -7.20 -6.78 -5.31
% Nasdaq is above its 200 EMA -14.54 -17.42 -22.22 -21.16 -18.70
% NDX is above its 200 EMA -11.84 -14.24 -19.55 -19.01 -15.94
% PSE-X is above its 200 EMA -4.23 -6.30 -11.34 -9.94 -8.25
% SPX is above its 200 EMA -2.43 -3.18 -5.07 -4.56 -2.83
% NYSE is above its 200 EMA 1.75 1.43 -0.19 -0.05 1.12
NASDAQ New Highs: 90.00 80.00 36.00 63.00 56.00
NASDAQ New Lows : 123.00 142.00 259.00 185.00 178.00
GOOD = less than 50 NL
NYSE New Highs: 239.00 244.00 132.00 168.00 179.00
NYSE New Lows : 52.00 55.00 99.00 92.00 94.00
GOOD = less than 30 NL
OTC McClellan Oscillator: 137.32 95.45 -14.78 1.53 22.71
NY McClellan Oscillator: 127.22 116.31 57.90 59.77 91.15
GOOD = staying above +50
Bear Market Sentiment: -37.77 -56.23 -72.48 -77.91 -86.64
RYNVX/RYURX: minus means
Bear funds are dominant
PSE Technology Index: 939.33 919.48 870.60 885.30 902.86
19-day EMA: 892.86 887.70 884.17 885.68 885.72
50-day EMA: 933.93 933.71 934.29 936.89 939.00
Russell 2000: 487.23 479.07 461.10 463.54 471.17
19-day EMA: 471.09 469.30 468.21 469.00 469.61
50-day EMA: 482.46 482.27 482.40 483.27 484.07
DFSCX: 12.52 12.36 12.11 12.21 12.27
19-day EMA: 12.51 12.51 12.53 12.58 12.62
50-day EMA: 13.01 13.03 13.06 13.10 13.13
DFSCX % gain since last low 4.95 3.60 1.51 2.35 2.85
> 6.00 and improving = GOOD
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NYSE Dominant, Environment Negative -- Beasley NY Score: 10.00
Maximum Investment: 50% to 75%
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WARNING! This is an EXTREMELY dangerous scenario -- NYSE dominant,
environment negative! You can `get your feelings hurt' very easily.
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DON'T BUY ........... issues that are minus in any column
DON'T BUY OR HOLD ... issues with RSI/Stochastics < 50
DON'T BUY OR HOLD ... issues on a Turtle SELL signal
RSI/Stoc = average of RSI + Stochastics
Momentum = 6-day trend of RSI/Stochastics
PriceOsc = Relation between fund's 19-day and 39-day average
Rel.Str. RSI/Stoc Momentum PriceOsc TurtleSig
-------- -------- -------- -------- ----------
FSAGX Fidelity Sel Gold Por 161.54 77.18 12.08 1.22 B,11/24/00
FSVLX Fidelity Sel Home Fin 132.07 82.18 14.40 2.81 B,11/30/00
FSHOX Fidelity Sel Constru 111.17 77.06 6.52 2.19 B,10/30/00
FSPCX Fidelity Sel Insuranc 108.03 76.50 18.30 2.29 B,12/05/00
FSPFX Fidelity Sel Paper & 98.92 74.80 3.85 2.43 B,11/29/00
FSDPX Fidelity Sel Indus Ma 96.75 72.81 2.95 2.17 B,12/01/00
FSRBX Fidelity Sel Banking/ 86.49 67.78 18.31 0.86 B,12/08/00
FIDSX Fidelity Sel Financia 79.52 68.42 24.41 0.80 B,12/08/00
FSDCX Fidelity Sel Develop 77.80 52.07 30.26 -4.88 B,12/11/00
FBSOX Fidelity Sel Busi Ser 76.35 70.92 14.68 1.66 B,12/05/00
FSCHX Fidelity Sel Chemical 66.24 64.11 3.33 1.67 B,12/04/00
FSCGX Fidelity Sel Indus Eq 62.31 62.95 25.88 -0.33 B,12/08/00
FSHCX Fidelity Sel Medical 57.18 73.07 4.02 2.42 B,11/30/00
FBIOX Fidelity Sel Biotechn 57.00 49.20 15.85 -1.81 S,11/13/00
FSRFX Fidelity Sel Transpor 52.83 72.14 5.25 1.86 B,10/30/00
FSLBX Fidelity Sel Brokerag 45.46 52.59 24.76 -1.21 B,12/11/00
FSLEX Fidelity Sel Environm 38.27 57.17 -0.38 1.42 B,12/05/00
FSCSX Fidelity Sel Software 37.48 47.45 20.51 -3.23 S,11/10/00
FSMEX Fidelity Sel Medical 32.44 68.34 6.32 0.97 B,12/05/00
FSAIX Fidelity Sel Air Tran 32.40 64.14 2.97 1.34 B,12/11/00
FDFAX Fidelity Sel Food & A 29.57 63.44 -20.10 2.03 S,12/06/00
FSPHX Fidelity Sel Health C 20.77 57.79 6.31 0.78 S,11/13/00
FSDAX Fidelity Sel Defense 6.50 49.49 15.09 0.13 S,11/10/00
FSNGX Fidelity Sel Natural 6.03 57.85 14.89 -0.59 B,12/11/00
FCYIX Fidelity Sel Cyclical 0.00 26.41 -0.00 0.00 B,08/24/00
FNARX Fidelity Sel Natural -0.02 22.07 -0.00 -0.02 B,08/21/00
FSCPX Fidelity Sel Consumer -0.94 41.46 2.17 -0.06 S,11/13/00
FSPTX Fidelity Sel Technolo -9.25 43.56 22.22 -6.01 S,09/08/00
FSRPX Fidelity Sel Retail/1 -11.01 45.25 -4.16 -0.52 S,09/26/00
FSTCX Fidelity Sel Telecomm -16.06 42.98 23.49 -4.18 S,09/08/00
FSELX Fidelity Sel Electron -23.16 43.54 21.13 -5.94 S,09/06/00
FDCPX Fidelity Sel Computer -28.69 42.38 21.85 -6.12 S,09/06/00
FDLSX Fidelity Sel Leisure/ -36.74 37.44 12.29 -2.37 S,09/07/00
FBMPX Fidelity Sel Multimed -37.06 38.10 13.73 -2.60 S,09/07/00
FSENX Fidelity Sel Energy -38.71 43.53 3.13 -1.21 S,09/20/00
FSUTX Fidelity Sel Utility -52.72 34.07 16.76 -3.11 S,09/18/00
FSESX Fidelity Sel Energy S -60.36 42.31 15.46 -3.71 S,09/18/00
FSAVX Fidelity Sel Automoti -72.15 24.09 -5.54 -1.73 S,11/13/00
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TURTLE BUY AND SELL SUMMARY (WITH RSI/STOCHASTICS)
ROC = Rate of Change (Gain or Loss)
Curr DD = Current Drawdown
DON'T BUY OR HOLD issues that are on a SELL signal
BUY signal triggered when issues break out to new 1-month high
SELL signal triggered when issues fall to new 2-week low
1mo ROC RSI/Stoc Curr DD SinceSig Turtle Sig
-------- -------- -------- -------- ----------
FSAGX Fidelity Sel Gold Por 13.71 67.08 -1.26 11.87 B,11/24/00
FSVLX Fidelity Sel Home Fin 10.50 82.81 0.00 6.81 B,11/30/00
FSPCX Fidelity Sel Insuranc 6.97 79.14 -0.68 3.13 B,12/05/00
FSHOX Fidelity Sel Constru 5.89 78.04 -0.47 8.57 B,10/30/00
FBSOX Fidelity Sel Busi Ser 4.53 76.06 -0.21 2.58 B,12/05/00
FSPFX Fidelity Sel Paper & 4.48 76.54 -0.54 3.54 B,11/29/00
FSCGX Fidelity Sel Indus Eq 4.19 62.92 0.00 1.95 B,12/08/00
FSDPX Fidelity Sel Indus Ma 4.16 75.48 -1.40 3.52 B,12/01/00
FIDSX Fidelity Sel Financia 4.10 68.97 0.00 1.31 B,12/08/00
FSHCX Fidelity Sel Medical 3.86 76.55 0.00 0.47 B,11/30/00
FSRFX Fidelity Sel Transpor 3.79 77.30 0.00 6.90 B,10/30/00
FSRBX Fidelity Sel Banking/ 3.26 67.38 0.00 2.00 B,12/08/00
FSDCX Fidelity Sel Develop 2.44 40.69 0.00 0.00 B,12/11/00
FDFAX Fidelity Sel Food & A 2.42 71.23 -2.62 -0.27 S,12/06/00
FSAIX Fidelity Sel Air Tran 2.30 72.05 0.00 0.00 B,12/11/00
FSNGX Fidelity Sel Natural 1.75 49.31 0.00 0.00 B,12/11/00
FSLBX Fidelity Sel Brokerag 1.25 48.18 0.00 0.00 B,12/11/00
FSCHX Fidelity Sel Chemical 1.11 70.91 -1.82 -1.14 B,12/04/00
FCYIX Fidelity Sel Cyclical 0.00 26.47 0.00 0.00 B,08/24/00
FNARX Fidelity Sel Natural 0.00 22.16 0.00 0.00 B,08/21/00
FSMEX Fidelity Sel Medical -0.01 68.54 -0.24 -0.18 B,12/05/00
FSELX Fidelity Sel Electron -0.29 36.79 0.00 -29.31 S,09/06/00
FSLEX Fidelity Sel Environm -0.56 68.08 -1.75 -1.75 B,12/05/00
FSDAX Fidelity Sel Defense -0.73 53.27 -0.57 1.25 S,11/10/00
FSPHX Fidelity Sel Health C -1.00 59.84 -0.37 4.36 S,11/13/00
FSENX Fidelity Sel Energy -2.32 38.47 -2.81 -5.29 S,09/20/00
FSCPX Fidelity Sel Consumer -3.45 51.16 -1.15 -0.07 S,11/13/00
FSTCX Fidelity Sel Telecomm -3.80 35.44 0.00 -22.67 S,09/08/00
FSRPX Fidelity Sel Retail/1 -4.49 49.21 -2.32 -7.04 S,09/26/00
FSCSX Fidelity Sel Software -5.18 43.73 0.00 1.62 S,11/10/00
FBIOX Fidelity Sel Biotechn -5.24 46.03 0.00 10.02 S,11/13/00
FSESX Fidelity Sel Energy S -5.31 37.67 0.00 -14.34 S,09/18/00
FSPTX Fidelity Sel Technolo -5.72 36.42 0.00 -24.39 S,09/08/00
FDCPX Fidelity Sel Computer -6.48 35.03 0.00 -27.11 S,09/06/00
FSUTX Fidelity Sel Utility -7.50 30.56 0.00 -12.75 S,09/18/00
FDLSX Fidelity Sel Leisure/ -7.75 35.46 0.00 -11.82 S,09/07/00
FBMPX Fidelity Sel Multimed -8.01 35.36 0.00 -13.02 S,09/07/00
FSAVX Fidelity Sel Automoti -8.92 28.45 -2.87 -5.48 S,11/13/00
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THESE CHANGED FROM SELL TO BUY TODAY
1day ROC 1wk ROC 2wk ROC 1mo ROC
-------- -------- -------- --------
FSLBX Fidelity Sel Brokerage/068 2.87 12.17 9.22 1.25
FSNGX Fidelity Sel Natural Gas/513 2.59 4.88 0.43 1.75
FSDCX Fidelity Sel Develop Commun/51 2.46 22.02 16.00 2.44
FSAIX Fidelity Sel Air Transporta/03 0.56 2.39 1.78 2.30
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THESE CHANGED FROM BUY TO SELL TODAY
1day ROC 1wk ROC 2wk ROC 1mo ROC
-------- -------- -------- --------
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THESE HAD THEIR HIGHEST PRICE TODAY OF THE PAST 10 WEEKS
Family Members: 38.00
10-Week High Members: 9.00
Percent on 10-Week High: 23.68
1day ROC 1wk ROC 2wk ROC 10wk ROC
-------- -------- -------- --------
FSRBX Fidelity Sel Banking/507 2.00 6.88 11.07 2.74
FSCGX Fidelity Sel Indus Equip/510 1.95 6.36 5.83 1.43
FIDSX Fidelity Sel Financial Svc/066 1.31 8.02 9.81 3.51
FSRFX Fidelity Sel Transport/512 1.04 2.47 2.39 12.92
FSAIX Fidelity Sel Air Transporta/03 0.56 2.39 1.78 7.98
FSHCX Fidelity Sel Medical Delive/50 0.47 1.39 4.45 13.68
FSVLX Fidelity Sel Home Finance/098 0.39 7.10 10.88 12.02
FNARX Fidelity Sel Natural Resour/51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FCYIX Fidelity Sel Cyclical/515 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
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THESE HAD THEIR HIGHEST PRICE TODAY OF THE PAST MONTH
Family Members: 38.00
1-Month BUY Members: 12.00
Percent on 1-Month High: 31.58
1day ROC 1wk ROC 2wk ROC 1mo ROC
-------- -------- -------- --------
FSLBX Fidelity Sel Brokerage/068 2.87 12.17 9.22 1.25
FSNGX Fidelity Sel Natural Gas/513 2.59 4.88 0.43 1.75
FSDCX Fidelity Sel Develop Commun/51 2.46 22.02 16.00 2.44
FSRBX Fidelity Sel Banking/507 2.00 6.88 11.07 3.26
FSCGX Fidelity Sel Indus Equip/510 1.95 6.36 5.83 4.19
FIDSX Fidelity Sel Financial Svc/066 1.31 8.02 9.81 4.10
FSRFX Fidelity Sel Transport/512 1.04 2.47 2.39 3.79
FSAIX Fidelity Sel Air Transporta/03 0.56 2.39 1.78 2.30
FSHCX Fidelity Sel Medical Delive/50 0.47 1.39 4.45 3.86
FSVLX Fidelity Sel Home Finance/098 0.39 7.10 10.88 10.50
FNARX Fidelity Sel Natural Resour/51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FCYIX Fidelity Sel Cyclical/515 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
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THESE HAD THEIR LOWEST PRICE TODAY OF THE PAST 2 WEEKS
Family Members: 38.00
2-Week SELL Members: 5.00
Percent on 2-Week Low: 13.16
1day ROC 1wk ROC 2wk ROC 1mo ROC
-------- -------- -------- --------
FSRPX Fidelity Sel Retail/146 -2.32 -1.57 -3.26 -4.49
FSCPX Fidelity Sel Consumer Indus/51 -1.15 -0.81 -0.53 -3.45
FDFAX Fidelity Sel Food & Agric/009 -1.08 -2.60 -0.88 2.42
FCYIX Fidelity Sel Cyclical/515 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FNARX Fidelity Sel Natural Resour/51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
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JR |
