I am fairly neutral on the subject of China-Taiwan, as I am happy to see both strong and prosperous. I do not believe China will invade Taiwan anytime soon (10-15 years?). I do agree that, should China invade, it will be at a time of Taiwan weakness. Defending Taiwan is nonsensical, as it simply lacks strategic depth.
Taiwan once tried to distance itself from China during the time of early Ching dynasty. Diplomacy failed after about nine attempts over many years. Eventually one invasion was launched and failed due to weather. Then another succeeded, launched during a time of maximum internal confusion, disunity, and some local cooperation.
China is improving its military capabilities, not so much for the invasion of Taiwan, but as a part of its overall development. When the time is right, and victory can be assured, a phone call will be made from Beijing to Taipei, and the message will be a simple one.
Of course, some more gentle approaches can be tried in the interim ... allowing 28 million Henan peasants to set sail as refugees from Xiamen will probably work pretty well, or print up a trillion counterfeit Taiwan dollars, or simply announcing a dead line for unification as in the case of Hong Kong. In such a scenario, the locals will stop investing locally, and all will simply ground to a halt.
But Taiwan knows all this, and is simply trying to play for time and a better bargaining position. In poker or chess, Taiwan holds a weak hand and a messy position. |
