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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Venkie who wrote (46653)	12/12/2000 1:44:59 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) of 436258

Let's talk about the market looking forward with respect to INTC in 3 mos, shall we? They rallied strongly on a warning ... But your implied thesis: Stock prices in the short term can tell us where the economy is going over the intermediate term is nuts. Pick a day and a reaction -- got to be 50/50 if you are looking at such isolated events and trying to extrapolate the next 6 - 9 months. Look at the whole of the Naz since warnings have begun -- what do you suppose that says about the economy. If one were to look at technology spending as marginal spending that can be cut during "slow-down" periods -- I would look at the bigger picture and say the slow-down is already upon us from 1 quarter ago and folks just didn't recognize it for what it was ... If I were a betting man, I'd bet that folks who bought INTC in the mid- high 30's that day -- they are going to be sorry if they hold even long enough for christmas sales numbers to be run ... short-term, the stock market often "gets it wrong." Surely you are not suggesting othewise ...

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