If we get the kind of draws mentioned here this week and next, we would be back down close to 2000Bcf by mid December (6 days before the actual start of winter), which would then probably be completely consumed in a normal winter.
AGA Preview: US Natural Gas Inventories Seen Dn 145-175 Bcf
Dec. 12-MAR--
By Gloria Gonzalez, BridgeNews
New York--Dec. 12--The American Gas Association is expected to report that U.S. natural gas storage levels decreased by about 145 to 175 bcf, according to a BridgeNews survey of brokers and analysts. The AGA report will be released after 1400 ET Wednesday.
* * *
Last week, the American Gas Association reported U.S. gas storage at 2,429 bcf for the week ended Dec. 1, down 73 from the previous week, and down 503 from the same period of 1999. Market sources expect Wednesday's report to feature a draw of about 145 to 175 bcf with a number in that range expected to be neutral after being discounted in the market Tuesday.
"As long as we stay in that 140 to 210 range, the market's not going to get too excited," said analyst Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch Associates. "I don't know if there really is a number that's going to surprise this market." However, the market may see the number in the 145 to 175 range as supportive due to lingering concerns about storage levels with expectations for an even stronger withdrawal of 200 or more bcf in next week's report due to cold weather in the Midwest and Northeast this week.
"I think that's probably pretty bullish," one trader said. "They're going to be looking for a 200 draw next week." AGA reported a 73-bcf withdrawal during the comparable period last year. The five-year average is a 67.6 bcf withdrawal.
The producing region's storage decreased 11 bcf to 611 bcf, or 64% of capacity last week, according to last week's AGA report. Producing storage levels are now 226 bcf below year-ago levels. The eastern consuming region had a draw of 57 bcf to 1,495 bcf, or 81% of capacity. Eastern storage levels are now 163 bcf below year-ago levels. The western consuming region storage levels decreased by 5 bcf to 323 bcf of gas, or 64% of capacity. Western region storage levels are now 114 bcf lower than a year ago. |
