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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank

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To: robsiv who wrote (118830)	12/12/2000 9:13:04 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (3) of 120523

Shorter's Delight today. Just look at CFLO.. it moved up well enough but the moment it got close to that 200 period moving average and the 10:35 reversal period it just faded. I think the best way to trade is look only at reversal period and not as the day as a whole, and PLAN to exit any trade after your uptrend is 4 to 5 bars long AND you are approaching the end of the reversal period. By 10:30 I'm usually out of long or short positions and whatever I'm not out at 10:30 I'm out by the doldrums 11:30, and rarely plan on holding longer but do put in buy stops for later day rallies (or tankages) after breaks from consolidation. You can see on the CFLO charts I posted, how the snake like path of a congestion stage (11:30 to 2:00) is similar every day. By 2:00 you might get a repeat of the 9:50 session, and by 3:00 you will more than likely have a reversal of the 2:00 session. Once you can anticipate trend changes in the MARKET as a whole you can apply them to stocks. Another thing I'm not crazy about is stocks that 'buck the trend'.. Its good for maybe one trade a day and it works better for earnings plays, but its best to trade in the DIRECTION OF THE TREND becasuse usually the stock that has bucked the trend might be succumbing to the predominant trend in the next period. That includes 'chasing stocks'.. We should never chase them, you won't catch it. That is why I don't think traders who trade one side of the market can make the very best trading decisions. There is so much waiting for upside which never comes, while the versatile trader does really care that much the DIRECTION the trend takes but rather the STRENGTH of the trend and he just follows whatever happens to be dominant. Everything pointed today to downside by the time the doldrums set at 11:30. The rest of the day just strengthened this downtrend. That is especially true when the key market internals are negative. Trends where out and when I read posts and see some of the guesswork, I just think it can be so simplified if you followed reversal periods. The 1:50 to 2:00 pre-reversal period has been notorious for setting the stage of a volatility breakout and sometimes I see traders holding on even when momentum is gone. It is okay to hold throughout the day when the trend is clear and the "sound of music" kind of trading is being done, but not when there are sharp reversal in short term overbought stocks. A trading day begins not at 9:30 but from the night before. Seeing how foreign markets made out, what the futures are doing, where is fair value? Have you TRIN, TICK futures charts ready. That day continues into the pre-market. What stocks were downgraded? Where is the pre-market activity focused? Have more than one stock in a sector been downgraded? That one works for bunches of stocks and you can get a lot of shorts from a sound downgrade. Upgrades don't have that much influence. If you ANTICIPATE the trading day as the enfolding of a drama that began already last night continues into the premarket and finally with the opening of the trading day its infinitely more superior than just beginning to scan or whatever traders do in the morning. You already have a head start especially if you have a list of stocks that might 'work' in this market scenario prepared beforehand. Dips are not necessarily buying opportunities.. dips can lead to tankings especially intraday. So logic is that dips are good for end of day to get a possible gap up in the morning. But that can backfire because no one knows what insidious news will crop of during the night or what company will be denigrated in the premarket or post market. Thre was urging buying the dips on Monday and last week but what about the dips that turned into Bigger Dippers.. Dips are just that.. a stock that is going down and that's all it is. We don't know how deep the dip will be. According to the Thesaurus we find the n. DIP: PLUNGE, SUBMERGE, RINSE or IMMERSE.. So which dip are you buying? The plunge or immerse or the rinse? And how do you know if you are getting the little dipper or the big dipper?

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