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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: yard_man who wrote (47011)12/13/2000 10:29:26 AM
From: Oblomov  Read Replies (4) of 436258
 
It will be rough. I don't mean to suggest otherwise. But I think that the Fed is taking the right course of action here. They are waiting for the bond market to send the rate-cut signal.

The economy will contract at the margins. It will not be seen as a "soft landing"...hiring will grind to a standstill, and with it, substantial pay raises. I see unemployment rising to perhaps 4.5 - 5% in the next year. This represents a contraction, to be sure, but it hardly suggests cataclysm. BWDIK?

EDIT: well I do know one thing. The US is not Japan. It is dissimilar in terms of demographics, culture, and politics. So, all comparisons of the Nasdaq to the Nikkei are likely to be invalid... as are the comparisons of Japan circa 1990 with the US circa 2000. Again, I claim to have no crystal ball, and I distrust the idea that events are "inevitable".
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