jeremic, agreed...fabry-perot inferometer technology has very big potential and many advantages...the number of channels per fiber is potentially limitless(almost<gg>)...and using the powershaper along with low dispersion leaf fiber from glw will lessen the need for regeneration...the big bottleneck will be switching at the edge imo...switches from xros, calient and agilent will not suffice...1064 X 1064 ports not nearly enough for future needs...imo the technology that will ultimately prevail will be switches made from chip technology...while it will take awhile, both active and passive components(and eventually switches) will need to be mass produced on chips...as i have noted before, the photonics industry is analogous to the semiconductor industry from 30-40 yrs ago...co's like lumm, bkhm and petachip hold some promise...while many are dismissive of gilder, he was talking up glw in 97', brcm in early 98', cien in late 98', jdsu in 97'....the list goes on and on...the key is to use his insights for emerging future technologies but he does nothing with respect to the timing of entering positions...matter of fact, if u buy when he adds a co. to his list, its a sure way to lose money<gg>...but ultimately, i am long cien and will be for a long time...until the newest technolgies gain traction, cien will be the place to be.
mact |
