Looks like you are right about seeing 9 1/4 before it sees 11! Man, did Intel put a hammering on the techs for awhile today.
I think New D is going to have to prove themselves some more, though in my opinion they already have. Did you by chance see the Memco announcement? Memco has put together a single sign-on solution that they are testing right now. They state that the core piece of software in their solution is Eagle Eye's Control-SA, which is yet another company selling our stuff for us! Compunel in Florida is using Control-I/2000 in their Y2K solution. So each of these businesses, to be successful in their own rights, MUST significantly boost OUR sales levels. Our software is quietly ramping up, and the gains will hit the financials over the next year or so, but until the market wakes up to the all around gains, we could have a long wait. If this quarter is a really good one, we could easily pop to the 18 range, as sometime in June or July it should start to have its typical summer move into the second quarter earnings announcement. Memco has several installations testing their security solution now, and are not giving a pricing structure on it until next fall, so we won't see revenues from it (my guess) until maybe the fourth quarter, or more likely the first qtr of '98. This is on top of everything else New D is doing right. The only thing they are NOT doing right is getting anybody to sit up and notice. My guess is that as long as the big name tech stocks stay hot, the money won't flood into the smaller ones like New D. After all, when Cisco was in the high 40's, and 3Com was sitting around 30, and the only reasons 3Com was hit was because they were going to miss earnings by a couple of pennies, and because of the uncertainty of their merging with US Robotics, where did it make sense to put your money? Leave it in New D at 13 3/4, testing resistance at the end of April, or dump it into 3Com at 30? Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and a painful thing. My guess is that one of the next stabs at 14 will blow it out. Why? Because the techs are roaring now, so how much greater can their near-term upside be? And, because New D is ratcheting its operations higher and higher, and it will become more attractive when the revenues kick out a little farther. I wait for the day it finally gets followed. I also find it interesting that Fidelity, Oppenheimer, Vanguard (I hear) and other funds have positions in New D. Why don't they call up their analyst buddies and nudge them into following this company? If those guys take the time to sit on the quarterly conference calls, and they do, then they must be taking the stock seriously. Their time is pretty precious, so for them to regularly visit our conference calls means they must be more than just mildly interested in it. Anyway, it is a painful ride, but it will be fruitful (and already has been for me). Just my opinion. Later. |
