why the recession could be a lot worse than now generally presumed (quoted from contraryinvestor,http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm):
<<In very rough numbers, every 1% change in the US savings rate equates to about $90 billion in real economic activity. Imagine a rise in the US savings rate to just 3% (well under any historical average experience). We'd be talking about a negative swing close to $300 billion in consumption. >>
i highly recommend reading the entire report...in Q3, the economy (as reported by BLS, which overstates GDP growth) grew by 2,4%, while debt in the economy grew by 6,8% (nonfinancial) and 9% (financial) respectively. note that these numbers include a shrinking of 6,4% of the federal debt, so private sector debt growth was even stronger than these numbers suggest.
and that is the crux...IN SPITE of credit growth continuing unabated, economic growth is not responding anymore. i conclude that the growth in debt is now in part firmly in Ponzi territory, where new debt is incurred to pay off old debt, in view of cashflows no longer supporting debt service of the more marginal weaker borrowers.
these data suggest a crash landing, as it seems impossible to continue to expand this credit bubble at the pace necessary to support asset prices and economic growth...the limits have apparently been reached.
regarding unemployment, it is true that this is a lagging indicator, but likely not AS lagging as it was e.g. in Japan, with its deeply rooted lifetime employment culture. in past US recessions, unemployment rates tended to eventually climb quickly. i agree the service sector may not be as fast shedding workers, but it won't be exempt from the slowdown.
imo, once the real estate bubble bursts (and it will...note, the hottest real estate regions, like e.g. California, are also the regions that are going to suffer the brunt of the tech depression fallout. SF already sees vacancies of industrial property rising sharply, and with average people priced out of the residential market , while the riches of the tech nouveau riche are melting like snow in the Sahara, we will soon see prices crack big time there as well) the banks will ignore Greenspud's urging to keep lending, and pull in their horns. they'll be busy enough trying to get the mounting dud loans off their books.
well, i couldn't resist spreading some doom and gloom after seeing your more conservative expectations for how bad the recession will likely get. i think it will get much worse than most economists now expect, and the private sector debt mountain is the main reason for that expectation. it doesn't even look like something that could possibly be worked out in a single recession, as policy makers are bound to try a Japan style stemming of the tide, that will ultimately prove fruitless.
i am inclined to go along with the Bronson view, that this is a supercycle bear period, that will see several recessions, spaced closely together.... |
