Another op-ed piece by a black writer who doesn't foresee things going as well as the Democrats hope. Some interesting observations about young black people favoring some Republican ideas like school vouchers and tax cuts:
"Democrat Expectations Of A Failed Bush Presidency May Prove Wishful Thinking
12-09-00
By Earl Ofari Hutchinson
The day after the U.S. Supreme Court and a Florida judge
dealt Gore a near mortal blow in his fast fading presidential
bid, he dispatched his Democratic running mate, Joseph
Lieberman to Capitol Hill to rally the troops. Publicly the 209
Democratic lawmakers Lieberman met with cheered Gore for
vowing to keep fighting, but privately many were resigned to
a Bush triumph. A few even dared whisper that a Gore loss
might not be a total catastrophe.
They ridicule Bush as a weak, inept and horribly compromised would-be
president. They're convinced that a Bush presidency will be littered with
piles of malapropisms, domestic and foreign policy bumbles, a plunging
economy, tormented by hostile Democrats in a deeply divided Congress,
and will face the fury of millions of voters who passionately believe that
he, and the Republicans, stole the White House. With 20 Republicans and
only 13 Democrats in Congress up for election in 2002, they are giddy at
the prospect that the Republicans will lose seats in the House, as has every
victorious presidents party in mid-term elections since the Civil War, with
the exception of 1934 and 1998. But the Democrats euphoric calculations
about Bush could easily crash against these obstacles.
Redistricting. During the next two years Congressional district lines
will be redrawn in many states based on the 2000 Census. Many of
the state legislatures that will divvy up the new districts are
dominated by Republicans. They will take a long and hard look at
how best to redraw those districts to cripple the Democrats influence
and voting strength.
Voter cynicism. Even without the drug-out Gore-Bush legal mess
that soured many voters, and the allegations of black voter fraud
nationally, millions of eligible voters have long since thrown up their
hands in disgust and rage at a system they regard as corrupt and
suffocated by special interest groups. They continue to stay away
from the polls in droves. The overwhelming majority of those
turned-off potential voters are minorities, lower income workers, and
immigrants. They are the natural constituency for the Democrats.
Also, while many Democrats engaged in a shameful orgy of bashing
and scapegoating Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader
for Gore's loss, if he hadn't run many Naderites would not have
voted for any Democrat, least of all a Democrat like Gore, anyway.
They regarded him, just as Bush, as a corporate shill and
deal-making party hack.
Minority Outreach. Nearly half of Latino voters in Florida and
Texas, and one-third of Asian voters in California voted for Bush.
Though blacks dutifully voted by more than 90 percent for Gore,
they did it not because they were enamored of him, but because they
were scared stiff that Bush will appoint more judges like Clarence
Thomas to the Supreme Court, and batter civil rights and civil
liberties protections.
Polls show that many blacks, particularly young blacks, are edging
more to the political right on economic and social issues. They
support school vouchers, increased support for minority business,
more aid for historically black colleges, and tax cuts. These are all pet
Republican issues. If the Republicans ever wise-up and make any
kind of sustained outreach to blacks they could pry loose the
iron-grip that Democrats have on their vote.
If Bush appoints Colin Powell as Secretary of State and Condeleeza
Rice as National Security Advisor as rumored, it would be a first for
blacks and women and could pay mounds of dividends for the GOP
among both groups.
Busted Economy. The economy has slowed down, but the Federal
Reserve's micro-managing of interest rates, a robust foreign trade
surplus, the continued expansion of the retail and service industries,
a massive trillion dollar surplus, widening the NAFTA partnership
with Mexico, and the growth and spread of dot.com technology
could prevent, or at least stave off for the time being, the predicted
economic slide. If so, Bush, like Clinton, would get the credit.
Centrist Bush. Bush will inherit a terribly divided Congress, be
saddled by the suspicion that he is an interloper in the Oval Office,
and be under the hawk-like watch of minorities, labor, and
Democrats of all stripes. This will force him to scrape off the harder
edges of his ultra-conservative social agenda to avoid inflaming
them.
No Strong Democrat Contender. Democrats will need to find
someone with the allure, name recognition, and money to knock-off
sitting president, Bush. With the possible exception of Hillary
Rodham Clinton, they have no one that presently fits that bill. And
that certainly includes Gore.
Democrats fervently believe and some even hope that dire things will
happen to derail a Bush presidency. That may prove to be just wishful thinking."
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