b,
I started getting suspicious full-moon monday when we hit
a high for the current rally. Often, (but NOT always) the
FM marks a high or low or turning point. Sometimes exactly on the day, sometimes just close. Occasionally, a strong trend
can blow through my time marker without so much a hesitation.
I have found I often have an edge, so to speak, to be open to and aware of the idea that that day for whatever reason may mark a high or low. That's partially why J.T.'s post jumped out at me - and your references to the data in the past. (thanks again!)
The market's lack of follow-thru on Tuesday had me on full alert. Today....well, the chart just looks like...deja vu all over again. I'm not absolutely set that more rally is not possible. Not that this last rally was that bad (if over) as
short as it was. Many stocks doubled in price off their 11/30
lows.
There is still a glimmer of hope after Bore gives his
step-aside speech, the market could reverse back up. But
that's kind of what I thought might happen today. After all,
it's already known that Bore will concede, why does the event
itself matter that much to the market?
Another thing that bothered me in the back of my mind is the
sudden, seemingly complete expectation for the Santa Claus
Rally. It struck me rather odd that just about everyone was
in agreement we are definitely going up. Too much, too fast,
and everyone getting un-bear-ably bullish. LOL The crowd is
often wrong.
It might be a couple days too soon to say, but I am in agreement with you that Nasdaq makes a new low. Maybe we keep making new lows until we get the much awaited, ballyhooed and
and elusive "capitulation". Maybe we retest 2500 level, bounce again in a trading range style. 3000 level was a key psychological area which needed to be tested, but as it appears to have repulsed this rally, a re-test to the low seems likely. Each knock on the door down below 2500 increases the likelihood it will fail as support and open the
way down to 2000, a Karmic sort of cleansing as that is where this last great bull run began. Full circle.
Got shorts? ggg
Regards,
e
P.S. It wouldn't surprise me too much to see the futures do
the head-fake up thing. Pop in the morning and then down. That seemed to be the pattern in the last down move.
BWDIK anyway! |
