It depends on what your definition of is, is. No what d you mean realistic. Heck I usually aim low.
EMC doesn't look good, cycles point lower but we are at first support with today's dip to around 77. Like I said, it doesn't look done yet. If this gives, there is a fib target around 72 that held last time but after that, the next target is around 56 and last the long term trendline is all the way down around 45.
SUNW is a hard one because they had real FA problems up until after 97 when they got refocused so their rally and strength is fairly recent thus no good lines to go off of farther back. I like this 30 region with 28 being the actual daily tine and the weekly saying 31. Cycles are about right for it to turn back up soon but ADX isn't quite ready ( getting reeeeal close though). I have missed this one so many times, I might try to be a bit early soon as the over all market puts in some signs of strength. If they warn, then look out below as the 97 trendline is down around 10. I suspect this is it though and as I said on our site, The open options as of yesterday had 35 as maximum painful itch ( I can't call it max pain because that is a trade mark apparently) area by my method.
As I said earlier, this is likely the last stage of the PE contraction. Note how many stocks are actually fairly strong or at least flat. EMC, SUNW and the mania stocks like AMCC, CREE, ITWO and all those other hype jobs that were trying to hang tough before are all getting killed the last couple days. Once QCOM gives, that should act as the all clear signal.
Futures are HEAVILY biased up this morning so we could be negative 4 and still be on program buy out of the gate. I think a lot of this is just triple witching slapping stuff around as positions are closed out. Did you see bonds today? WOW! Next week worries me more as there will be no upward options bias and most of the news is out now regarding elections, economic numbers etc. After everyone has a weekend to think things over, this is where we should see what the pros are really up to and where they think we are going.
I am leaning short term lower but think we are making the mid term turn for a year end rally barring a surprise out the big boys like SUNW EMC GE CSCO. The schedule is hell though with PPI tomorrow morning, ORCL reporting tomorrow night then CPI Friday morning. Kind of like finding a pot of gold but it is in the middle of a mine field and all you have to do to get it is tip toe in the right spots and avoid the booms.
Allan, loved the cartoon as always.
I wrote a response as to the other part but it got so good, I didn't want to (1.) get that far off topic and (B.) Start a thread war 3.) push him to over the edge to where he shoots up a broker office or ends up on a water tower with a high power rifle.<NG> That guy has gone over the edge and is starting to scare me as well as others. This isn't funny anymore, there are signs of serious illness there and I am not talkin' about the flu.
Last response he tried to say I move my lines each day. Anyone that has watched my charts for the last year knows I leave them alone for at least 6 months at a time and make an announcement when I am moving them. Heck I don't have time to move my lines since I post over 60 charts a night. I barely have time to sleep as it is.
Good Luck,
Lee |
