Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (81657)	12/14/2000 9:12:18 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Fed Ex Warns - The Bear re-awakens; put a fork in Xmas retail season. Xmas retail season ? ..... we've allready seen WalMart warn, Home Depot warn, Best Buy warn & implode and now.... the new economy indicator of indicator ~ Fed Ex; warns. Financials tanking due to credit quality (gee whodathunkit)... and on that front - bet the farm; "you aint seen nothing yet". - let the Bear resume... Nancy Tengler on CNBC also personififed the mindset of Wall Street toward the Oilpatch here - and remember; they, not commodity prices, or frontline activity, determine shareprices. She said it all - "even with these commodity prices; the Oil's have done nothing"... ie: no reason to be investing there. It's only a question of how many Nancy Tenglers are still in the Oilpatch to be "shaken out" - that will determine "how low will we go"... OSX 80ish would be the level come February-March; where if we still have $4.75+ Nat Gas and $26+ Crude Oil that the OSX could mount another 40-60 point straight up spring rally leg. That is the only positive risk vs. reward "full" re-entry opportunity on the horizon that gets me excited... and it will take 3 things for it to pay off. 1. That the "soft landing" scenario is still in the cards and that we do not see collapsing GDP #'s. 2. That the broad market does not collapse with the still contracting earnings & revenue estimates and forthcoming negative Xmas Retail results and poor Q4 & Q1 earnings reports from the broad market & tech specifically. 3. That the OSX see's a final shakeout capitulation here to to the OSX 80's level. If those 3 items align themselves come late Jan-February; then we will be poised for a substantial Oilpatch rally in what has recently become the annual March to May run. That just might be the "last hurrah" for Boom 99-01; as once again - Wall Street won't be waiting untill they see the "collapse & rollover" of this sector to get out for good; they'll be looking for the "peak" to clearly be put in place and that fundamental momenteum turn in earnings, cash flow & frontline activity that brings the "cycle peak" into view; looks to be coming onto the horizon this spring for service, manufacturing-fab & drillers and we look to be seeing in pass before our eyes right now for the E&P's... It's either Oct 97-esque Deja Vu all over again & we've allready seen the highs come & go; or we'd better hope for a final OSX 80's capitulation & for #'s 1,2 & 3 above to fall into place for the potential of a final OSX cycle run to new highs come this spring.

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