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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Jay k. who wrote (1392)12/14/2000 11:23:29 AM
From: tradermike_1999  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 

1) Presidential turmoil- Its over now.
2) High oil prices - Oil is back to the mid 20s.
3) Slowing economy/possible recession- Still an unknown
4) Lack of Fed intervention- No longer true. Fed has stated they will lower rates going forward and at the least no more tightenings for the forseeable future.

Did I miss anything? Seems 3 of the 4 unknowns are taken care of.

Why are we still so bearish?



1)The President is not an all powerful position. With Bush in office it will be even more weak with the election tie and the low abilities of Bush. Little will be accomplished. If a recession comes people will hate Bush and think he is the next Herbert Hoover or Jimmy Carter.

2) Yes, nice to see oil drop. Now we need other energy commodities to drop too.

3)Still an unknown, this is not a good point. This is the horrible point and all data points to a slowdown. I predicted this months ago and analysts back then were saying no slowdown. Now I predict odds are we get a recession and most say no. The New Economy miracles will prevent it.

4)Yo uare a little wrong here too. Fed will switch to neutral. Greenspan said that they would cut rates if there was a danger of a recession - no duh. But since they don't see a danger of one they won't cut rates. All he said is they would in the future, not when.

Things are still slowing and it is not clear how much further it will go or when it will end. Investing now in tech stocks is a fool's game.
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