What if the rates go up with Bush,instead of down?
From Princeton Economic Institute..........
Many might agree that stocks will retest the base and
possibly hit new lows if Gore is declared the winner,
but some might argue with the notion that a Bush win
would also bring a retest of the Lows. Why should
stocks go down if Bush wins? If Bush wins, he will be
under the gun to not only stick to his bold tax cuts
(to please the far right), but also make good on
his flimsy campaign rhetoric of being a
"compassionate conservative."
Ironically, he may be forced to actually become a
"compassionate conservative" or the liberal media
will have him for lunch every day of the week. It has
already been pointed out many times in the debates
that Texas has the worst record of all the states on
education and the environment. "George W." cannot
afford to allow his first actions as President to give the
lie to his so called "compassionate conservatism". If
he allows his actions to contradict his rhetoric of being
a "comassionate conservative", the media will immediately
remind the nation that the son is not so different from the
father who broke his 'no more taxes" pledge. It is also
not true Americans will allow Bush to continue with the same
nonchalant attitude towards the education and the environment
that worked so well for him in Texas.
If elected, Bush would also be well advised to make some high
profile gestures toward bipartisanship legislation his first priority,
to help placate the Democrats who are going to be very angry
no matter what.
What does it all mean?
It means George W. Bush will be spending a lot more money
than most people have anticipated (thru both tax cuts & social
programs).
Interest rates will move higher and stocks will retest the base
and struggle to move higher...at least for a while.
In effect, the challenge for a Bush Presidency will be to break
his promises to the far right (perhaps dilute the tax cuts or delay
them,
pushing them farther into the future) and at the same time be effective
enough on the environment, education, and health care so that Hillary
will have
nothing to run on in 2004.
Can you imagine a Republican President solving our Health Care
Crisis and acting acting responsibly on the environment?
Could you imagine in 1992 a Demoractic President attacking the
national debt and bringing in a Surplus?
If Bush suceeds on the social imperatives of the next 4 years,
it would be the equivalent of a democratic president passing Nafta,
balancing the budget, and passing welfare reform.
The trick is to know which promises to keep and which ones to
walk away from.
I'm betting on higher interest rates. |
