SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: prosperous who wrote (47680)12/14/2000 2:20:53 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
what argues against this are several things: 1. cycles are pointing down into late Jan. 2. everybody knows already they'll change the bias. i can't imagine the effect to last beyond one day to one week at the most. 3. pre-announcements in Jan. will be a doozy. 4. the first rate cut has historically rarely coincided with a low in the market. in the last bona fide bear in '74, the SnP declined another 27% after the first cut. in the '30's, the market just kept falling, in spite of multiple, huge cuts. in Japan, rates fell all the way to zero, and that produced a trading range 65% - 50% below the ATH.

i do think however that this time, due to the conditioning from the '98 experience, the market WILL rally for a while after the first cut. but the bias change may not be sufficient.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News