you mean you won't even consider the possibility that things are REALLY bad, in fact so bad that they COULDN'T manage them with their cookie jar?
not that i wouldn't agree otherwise with your comment re. expectations management by MSFT...but it used to be like, they'd say on their cc after yet another blow-out number, "don't expect too much from our next qu." whereupon they would proceed to produce another blow-out, etc.
don't forget, they were THE leading stock of the bull market aside from GE...even though others like CSCO, ORCL and INTC were for a time playing catch-up in the latter stages of the bubble...anyway, as such, they were on the forefront of all sorts of financial engineering that works ONLY in bull markets: ESOPs, with the attendant tax rebates, put selling (on a grand scale in fact...they're in the hole to the tune of a few billion on a single institutional otc put warrant trade alone) , investment income by investing in other bubble stocks, etc.
now we get to see the reverse leverage effect...
all that said, it's a great company that still possesses a virtual monopoly on PC OS, and its margins will never suffer the same way PC co. margins are suffering in a slowdown...
interesting tidbit is also that it not only led the bull market, but when it refused to participate in the final NAZ blow-off, it gave an early warning signal that the tech bull was about to end...
i dimly remember the Win95 PR debacle...but their earnings never missed a beat if i'm not mistaken. |
