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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (81779)	12/15/2000 9:45:04 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

George C; re: "if gold doesn't show movement "soon" - we'll have to write it off..." Not in my book we won't. The ability to move "soon" is and will be negated by the price of gold still being "stabilized/manipulated" by those gold short/derivative holders who leveraged US Dollar contracts long with the proceeds of selling Gold short --- they need to unwind US Dollar contracts without Gold ramping. The Fed/ESF - PPT; will keep the POG in line as much as possible during the initial US Dollar - "walk down"...as the likes of JPM Chase & Deutsche are vastly over-exposed here. But, there will be a point where the POG will break out; I just don't think it will be in the initial stage of the dollar correction - because if Gold is "allowed" to breakout here; it would create panic & accelerate the move and create an implosion in those massive derivative positions. The Price of Gold is like a Fire Alarm for this market. It is the last thing that the Fed/ESF - PPT and all those banks loaded to the gills with those derivative contracts will allow to "sound" (happen)or want to see go off. Rubin called the LTC crisis "the single greatest threat to the markets since the 1929 market crash"... Any Gold spike simultaneous to a US Dollar "implosion" would make LTC's little debacle soon forgotten... The house of Morgan, Chase, Deutsche et al would topple. The only way that happens is if someone like Soros, Buffet, or the "next" Hunt Brothers makes one of those historic moves here shortly... Give me merely $325 Gold - which will give us XAU 100 by next fall in $5-$10 POG spurts, or a slow grinding upward move... it doesn't matter to me; but I think Gold does go there on just it's move against the US Dollar. Should we get a "Crisis" event; then a quick break to $400 Gold is not unrealistic and if the derivatives break ? - $600-$800, even higher in a short covering/speculative environment... remember; most Gold moves come at the end of Oil Shocks ... and where are we today ? OPEC will hedge the simultaneous implosion to their net oil receiveables via Gold. They have to; they get paid internationally in US Dollars for Oil and the value of the US dollar is falling as is & will the price of Oil itself. Gold is the only hedge & it's allways been their hedge... Interesting possibilities... it's impossible to predict when these things happen - it's just prudent to recognize hisotric buying opps; which is what we've just had at Xau 40-50; literally the cheapest "quarter" for the XAU in 15 years... cheapest valuation in history of the gold miners on $ per ounce of reserves & an ounces of production basis as well... Gold: If not here & now; where & when ? PS: Microsoft lowers guidance, lower analyst targets, SUNW downgraded with lower guidance, HP guidance & targets just lowered, CMGI downgraded, Intel got cut by ABN Amro... and more to come. Throw a dreary Xmas retail season onto that fire & the story is allready written... I think we see $30-35 Cisco within 6-8 mos - just watch. Patience & Cash are King; and he who has the Gold - makes the rules....

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