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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (81768)12/15/2000 9:59:58 AM
From: Meridian  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Slider, re:Coldest Winter in 20 years & alltime high Nat Gas Prices...
Now; a trading 101 question class:

Is that a buying, or a selling event ?

... I rest my case.

If the market were 100% efficient, you'd be 100% right. But we have an inefficient market, especially with regard to areas that are less understood by the investing masses, such as energy. Following this logic, I suspect that less of the "givens" which you listed above are actually factured in to current stock prices. The old Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact works only if investors understand the particular market/stock. So much attention is given to Techs that this Maxim works in tech. But less so in oils/gas. And with mo-mo players looking more and more at Positive surprises and earnings momentum to dictate money flows, we should see higher stock prices (E&P's and services) in 2001, when two things happen.

1. Earnings really do come through
2. We don't find ourselves in a nasty global downturn

Now the real question is, how much will diminished demand hurt oil and gas prices? Especially with little coming in the way of production. Lower demand, flat supply = less of a price correction than is factured in by the market. That's my bet. And $25 oil, $4.00 gas for 2001. These stocks don't reflect my estimates.
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