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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (81785)12/15/2000 11:40:21 AM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (4) of 95453
 
If I didn't hit any wrong keys on my calsulator, if we have draw at the same rate as the past calendar year, then next year at this time the reserves will be at 342 and next winter we will run out of gas in about January.

Of course, everyone who can is bringing gas on line, so it won't be that bad. But how can prices possibly decline from where they are over the next eighteen months?

Is my arithmetic wrong? I just took the draws from the rest of last year and added them to the draws so far this winter and subtracted from what we have now (which reflects additions over the summer). And I get 342.

Put another way, we were at about 1000 at the end of the last heating season and right now we are 600 below what we had last year. Meaning we would end the heating season with 400 if we are lucky. And there may be less than than. If we are 600 below where we are now a year from now, we will run out.

And none of this allows for extra NG generating cominmg on line, which I think will eat up new production.

This is worse than a drought. I mean, in a drought, it always CAN rain.

I cannot stand the risk of buying far-out NG futures but otherwise, in other ways, I am goinmg to stay fully invested in NG. I am going to convert any profits from short plays (I am short the Dow in a big way) into gas. (HGT, SJT)
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