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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 77.40-0.5%3:59 PM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (44593)12/15/2000 1:08:07 PM
From: larry  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
OG,

My point is that it's absolutely ridiculous to add investment gains (3% to 15% for CSCO in the last 2 years) to boost the bottomline growth, and resort to one time write off if you lose money in investment. I wrote two months ago that there is no business that MSFT rallied 30% after posting flat y-o-y top line growth number and recommend everyone buying MSFT puts for some nice potential gains. The same story goes with INTC, which is even worse because they saw 3 billion dollars of investment gains evaporating in the last 9 months and their beautiful picture is about the get uglier when they use all of their investment gains to boost the top and bottomline growth within the next 2-3 quarters. I am longing only QQQ with some selected puts (MSFT, INTC, EMC, and SUNW). I mentioned that the bear market won't be over until the latter two comes down to earth. We are very close to that phase now.

CSCO is a great company. But with sky high valuation, I just don't see any significant appreciation for this issue in the short and medium term. The craziest bull market is over with nut plummeting 80-95% within the last 9 months. To make things worse, CSCO has to fight against the new accounting rule next year. And don't think that everything is great at CSCO land when they so aggressively loan $$$ to companies that buy their equipment. It's a very likely scenario that CSCO will see mid 30s within the next 6 months.

larry
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