Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Tommaso who wrote (81823)	12/15/2000 2:30:30 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Tomasso; re: the Nat Gas version of OPEC... Alternative fuel switching and or/ price controls is the first equivalent of an OPEC valve and decade high record rig counts & Nat Gas as a percentage of rigs drilling; will more than make up for not having a NOPEC cartel (VBG). Watch them raise the margin requirement on Nat Gas contracts in the futures market here shortly and emergency price controls ? impossible you say ? ... allready on the agenda & in discussion fwiw. It's being termed Clinton's parting gift to California/Hollywood... 6-9 mos ? Maybe 12-15 mos Max; there will be no, zero, nada - Nat Gas supply problem - none. While $3.50-$4.25 would be a historically bullish level - stocks won't trade higher there than they did at $5-$7 NG. Certainly not with a slowing US Economy. People here seem to forget how minute declines in demand lead to dramatic contractions in Oil & Gas prices. Also; once momenteum in the commodity/futures markets shifts - the pendulum is most certainly going to swing into over-correction mode as well... allways has, allways does, allways will... Wake up people ! It is not the return of $2, or $3 Nat Gas that the Street will be looking for here, to sell off and dump the E&P's; it is merely that the potential for a nearterm (2,3 mos) further speculative spike is no longer on the horizon. The Pigs have left the building people; only the Hogs remain & it's only a question of how many of them make it out the gate in time; before becoming bacon... I've just talked to a broker - there is substantial (keyword substantial) margin trading/hot money flowing to lots of mid cap E&P's here... hot money; as in "temporary" trading/speculative money... it will most assuredly exit before the end of this winter.... that's 90 days people... tic toc - the clocks ticking. I can NOT believe that traders here are not looking at the "smart money" heavilly institutionally owned Big Caps for a clue; or the XOI - as it is NOT reflecting what many traders here think they see. We've all ready disconnected from Commodity prices here; and both Oil & Gas are posied to substantially contract on a slowing US Economy - of which we are about to see a windfall of negative economic stats over the next 3-4 months. I'm just sitting & waiting for some of these small & mid cap - hot momenteum/margin money stocks to take off and I am licking my chops to buy puts & short them - literally the same risk vs reward opp on the short side as buying $8 RDC, or $5 FLC long was here back in late '98... Think about it; the alltime high for Nat Gas commodity prices and the alltime low for supply... California in a crisis.... Could a short seller script a more perfect short selling opp ? ... yes; they could (VBG)! - if this speculative move & scenario was "also" into the face of a slowing US economy... Run 'em up boys... I got ya covered on the downside (VBG).

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